bayesRatings

Orioles at Rockies

MLB · Monday, Aug 31 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final BAL 2 – COL 1
← MLB / Aug 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000010100240
COL000100000180
Team box
BAL·COL
4
hits
8
0
home runs
0
6
walks
4
5
strikeouts
8
138
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Samuel BasalloBAL1-3001
Jordan BeckCOL1-3001
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4000
Colton CowserBAL0-4001
Coby MayoBAL1-3100
Dylan BeaversBAL1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cade PovichBAL5.05134
Grant Wolfram (W)BAL2.01002
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL1.01001
Tanner GordonCOL5.03113
Mark Manfredi (L)COL1.10131

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · BAL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 60%, COL 40% · Updated Aug 31

Expected margin
BAL by 1.4
Expected score
BAL 6.5 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.5
OriolesThe matchupRockies
−147Our fair odds+147
6.5Expected runs5.0
−0.02Power rating−0.48
4.6Runs / game4.7
4.7Allowed / game5.7
7.9Hits / game8.6
1.23Home runs / game1.11
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
68−69Season record52−85
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−14760%−12655.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14740%+10548.7%———
SpreadBAL by 1.4
BALBaltimore Orioles−1.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.5
Over11.5our total————
Under11.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 1.4 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 18 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 17 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCOL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more48%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALCade Povich SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 10 Kstarted
COLTanner Gordon SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.63 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·COL
Aug 30 at ATH
last game
Aug 30 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
BAL·COL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.48
4.6
runs / game
4.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.7
68−69
season record
52−85
34−34
home record
27−38
34−35
away record
25−47
W3
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
8.6
1.23
home runs / game
1.11
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.60
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

BAL · COL · 156 days
Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · COL 3−6
Jul 27, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at BALBAL 18 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at BALCOL 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2024at COLBAL 6 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 5
Aug 30, 2024at COLBAL 5 − 3
Aug 27, 2023at BALCOL 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4
Aug 25, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Aug 30at ATH8 − 5W
Aug 29at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 28at ATH4 − 3W
Aug 27at STL5 − 7L
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W
Aug 23vs TB1 − 3L
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W
Aug 21vs TB5 − 3W
Aug 20vs NYY1 − 6L

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Aug 30at ATL2 − 3L
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L
Aug 28at ATL4 − 6L
Aug 27at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 26at WSH13 − 1W
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W
Aug 24at WSH3 − 13L
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L
Aug 21vs CLE1 − 9L