bayesRatings

Orioles at Rockies

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final BAL 2 – COL 4
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL001000100271
COL020000204101
Team box
BAL·COL
7
hits
10
1
home runs
2
3
walks
3
9
strikeouts
6
146
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson HollidayBAL3-5111
Adael AmadorCOL2-4111
TJ RumfieldCOL1-3112
Jake McCarthyCOL2-5001
Brett SullivanCOL2-3000
Pete AlonsoBAL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle BradishBAL5.06224
Luis De Leon (L)BAL1.01101
Gabriel HughesCOL4.24124
Jaden Hill (W)COL1.01101
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
BAL +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 2 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 60%, COL 40% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
BAL by 1.4
Expected score
BAL 6.4 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.4
OriolesThe matchupRockies
−147Our fair odds+147
6.4Expected runs5.0
−0.02Power rating−0.49
4.6Runs / game4.7
4.7Allowed / game5.7
7.8Hits / game8.6
1.22Home runs / game1.10
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
69−69Season record52−86
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.5%40.5%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−14760%−15460.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+14740%+12943.7%———
SpreadBAL by 1.4
BALBaltimore Orioles−1.4our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.4
Over11.4our total————
Under11.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 1.4 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 18 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 17 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCOL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more48%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 12 Kstarted
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·COL
Aug 31 at COL
last game
Aug 31 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
BAL·COL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.49
4.6
runs / game
4.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.7
69−69
season record
52−86
34−34
home record
27−39
35−35
away record
25−47
W4
streak
L5
8−2
last 10
2−8
7.8
hits / game
8.6
1.22
home runs / game
1.10
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.59
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BAL · COL · 157 days
Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 3−7
Aug 31at COLBAL 2 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at BALBAL 18 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at BALCOL 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2024at COLBAL 6 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 5
Aug 30, 2024at COLBAL 5 − 3
Aug 27, 2023at BALCOL 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4
Aug 25, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4

BAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Aug 31at COL2 − 1W
Aug 30at ATH8 − 5W
Aug 29at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 28at ATH4 − 3W
Aug 27at STL5 − 7L
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W
Aug 23vs TB1 − 3L
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W
Aug 21vs TB5 − 3W

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L5
Aug 31vs BAL1 − 2L
Aug 30at ATL2 − 3L
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L
Aug 28at ATL4 − 6L
Aug 27at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 26at WSH13 − 1W
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W
Aug 24at WSH3 − 13L
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L
Aug 22vs CLE3 − 4L