bayesRatings

Orioles at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 2 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final BAL 5 – COL 6
← MLB / Sep 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
BAL003000000025100
COL001100001036121
Team box
BAL·COL
10
hits
12
0
home runs
0
3
walks
2
7
strikeouts
17
165
pitches thrown
174
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Blaze AlexanderBAL3-5101
Cole CarriggCOL3-5101
Luis Robert Jr.BAL1-5102
Brett SullivanCOL1-1002
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4001
TJ RumfieldCOL2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor RogersBAL6.262011
Grant Wolfram (L)BAL0.23202
Tomoyuki SuganoCOL6.06314
Blas Castano (W)COL1.03101

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
BAL +3
1234567891011
largest lead: COL 1 · BAL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 59%, COL 41% · Updated Sep 2

Expected margin
BAL by 1.3
Expected score
BAL 6.3 – 5.0 COL
Expected total
11.3
OriolesThe matchupRockies
−144Our fair odds+144
6.3Expected runs5.0
−0.02Power rating−0.48
4.5Runs / game4.7
4.7Allowed / game5.7
7.8Hits / game8.6
1.22Home runs / game1.11
3.7Walks drawn / game3.2
69−70Season record53−86
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · COL chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshi64.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles−14459%−18364.6%———
COLColorado Rockies+14441%+14640.7%———
SpreadBAL by 1.3
BALBaltimore Orioles−1.3our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.3
Over11.3our total————
Under11.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Orioles by 1.3 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 17 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 16 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 7%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 11%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byCOL wins by →
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more48%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.558%
Total over 11.543%
Total over 13.530%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 5.50 ERA, 19 Kstarted
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 12.75 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·COL
Sep 1 at COL
last game
Sep 1 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
BAL·COL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.48
4.5
runs / game
4.7
4.7
runs allowed / game
5.7
69−70
season record
53−86
34−34
home record
28−39
35−36
away record
25−47
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
8.6
1.22
home runs / game
1.11
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.2
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.60
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

BAL · COL · 158 days
Baltimore OriolesColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Sep 1at COLCOL 4 − 2
Aug 31at COLBAL 2 − 1
Jul 27, 2025at BALBAL 5 − 1
Jul 26, 2025at BALBAL 18 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at BALCOL 6 − 5
Sep 1, 2024at COLBAL 6 − 1
Aug 31, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 5
Aug 30, 2024at COLBAL 5 − 3
Aug 27, 2023at BALCOL 4 − 3
Aug 26, 2023at BALBAL 5 − 4

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 1at COL2 − 4L
Aug 31at COL2 − 1W
Aug 30at ATH8 − 5W
Aug 29at ATH5 − 3W
Aug 28at ATH4 − 3W
Aug 27at STL5 − 7L
Aug 26at STL8 − 7W
Aug 25at STL13 − 1W
Aug 23vs TB1 − 3L
Aug 22vs TB3 − 2W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 1vs BAL4 − 2W
Aug 31vs BAL1 − 2L
Aug 30at ATL2 − 3L
Aug 29at ATL1 − 2L
Aug 28at ATL4 − 6L
Aug 27at WSH1 − 7L
Aug 26at WSH13 − 1W
Aug 25at WSH3 − 1W
Aug 24at WSH3 − 13L
Aug 23vs CLE2 − 7L