bayesRatings

Rangers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Sep 11 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final TEX 1 – ARI 9
← MLB / Sep 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000010000150
ARI000045009110
Team box
TEX·ARI
5
hits
11
0
home runs
2
4
walks
5
8
strikeouts
3
152
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI2-5203
Nolan ArenadoARI2-3111
Corbin CarrollARI1-4112
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5102
Ildemaro VargasARI2-5101
Joc PedersonTEX2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie Gore (L)TEX4.05432
Merrill KellyARI4.12133
Kevin Ginkel (W)ARI0.20000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +8
TEX +8
123456789
largest lead: ARI 8 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 45%, ARI 55% · Updated Sep 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.2 TEX
Expected total
8.8
RangersThe matchupDiamondbacks
+121Our fair odds−121
4.2Expected runs4.6
−0.06Power rating+0.05
4.1Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.4
8.1Hits / game8.1
1.16Home runs / game0.97
3.3Walks drawn / game3.3
72−75Season record78−69
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · ARI chance
Our model fair45.3%54.7%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+12145%−10350.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−12155%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers+0.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 9%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more39%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more29%
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 7.50 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·ARI
Sep 10 at SEA
last game
Sep 9 at KC
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 147+ games
TEX·ARI
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.1
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
72−75
season record
78−69
40−32
home record
41−31
32−43
away record
37−38
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.1
1.16
home runs / game
0.97
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.9
0.44
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

TEX · ARI · 167 days
Texas RangersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
May 13at TEXTEX 6 − 5
May 12at TEXTEX 7 − 4
May 11at TEXARI 1 − 0
Sep 3, 2025at ARIARI 2 − 0
Sep 2, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at ARITEX 7 − 5
Aug 13, 2025at TEXARI 6 − 4
Aug 12, 2025at TEXARI 3 − 2
Aug 11, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 6
Sep 11, 2024at ARIARI 14 − 4

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Sep 10at SEA3 − 4L
Sep 9at SEA2 − 3L
Sep 8at SEA10 − 5W
Sep 6vs TB8 − 6W
Sep 5vs TB3 − 6L
Sep 4vs TB6 − 7L
Sep 3vs TB6 − 0W
Sep 2vs ATH2 − 9L
Sep 1vs ATH8 − 5W
Aug 31vs ATH8 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 9at KC2 − 5L
Sep 8at KC5 − 3W
Sep 7at KC5 − 4W
Sep 6at HOU3 − 2W
Sep 5at HOU4 − 3W
Sep 4at HOU1 − 3L
Sep 2vs PHI1 − 0W
Sep 1vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 31vs PHI1 − 2L
Aug 29at SF2 − 7L