bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Royals

MLB · Monday, Sep 7 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final ARI 5 – KC 4
← MLB / Sep 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ARI00000000055101
KC0000000004481
Team box
ARI·KC
10
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
4
12
strikeouts
8
161
pitches thrown
161
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC3-5003
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4001
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5001
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4100
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-4101
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Derek LawARI2.01000
Justin Martinez (W)ARI1.00011
Dennis Santana (S)ARI0.20001
Noah CameronKC6.03027
Craig Kimbrel (L)KC1.05411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +5
ARI +5
12345678910
largest lead: KC 0 · ARI 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 52%, KC 48% · Updated Sep 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.7 – 4.3 KC
Expected total
9.0
DiamondbacksThe matchupRoyals
−108Our fair odds+108
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.11
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.4Allowed / game4.9
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.98Home runs / game1.05
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
76−68Season record64−80
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · KC chance
Our model fair51.9%48.1%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10852%−10751.8%———
KCKansas City Royals+10848%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 12%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byKC wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more40%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more30%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIDerek Law RP · last 3 starts: 3.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2 Kstarted
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 3.38 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·KC
Sep 6 at HOU
last game
Sep 6 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 144+ games
ARI·KC
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.9
76−68
season record
64−80
41−31
home record
38−34
35−37
away record
26−46
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.98
home runs / game
1.05
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.37
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

ARI · KC · 163 days
Arizona DiamondbacksKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Jul 6, 2025at ARIKC 4 − 0
Jul 5, 2025at ARIARI 7 − 1
Jul 4, 2025at ARIKC 9 − 3
Jul 24, 2024at KCARI 8 − 6
Jul 23, 2024at KCARI 6 − 2
Jul 22, 2024at KCKC 10 − 4
Apr 26, 2023at ARIARI 2 − 0
Apr 25, 2023at ARIKC 5 − 4
Apr 24, 2023at ARIARI 5 − 4
Aug 24, 2022at KCKC 5 − 3

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 6at HOU3 − 2W
Sep 5at HOU4 − 3W
Sep 4at HOU1 − 3L
Sep 2vs PHI1 − 0W
Sep 1vs PHI1 − 7L
Aug 31vs PHI1 − 2L
Aug 29at SF2 − 7L
Aug 29at SF7 − 1W
Aug 28at SF10 − 6W
Aug 27at SF1 − 6L

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 6vs TOR6 − 1W
Sep 5vs TOR3 − 4L
Sep 4vs TOR2 − 9L
Sep 3vs MIA7 − 3W
Sep 2vs MIA6 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIA3 − 6L
Aug 30at CLE1 − 11L
Aug 29at CLE8 − 3W
Aug 28at CLE3 − 0W
Aug 27at TOR13 − 2W