bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Royals

MLB · Sunday, Sep 6 · 1:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final TOR 1 – KC 6
← MLB / Sep 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000001000181
KC30201000670
Team box
TOR·KC
8
hits
7
1
home runs
2
1
walks
7
5
strikeouts
8
149
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-3213
Salvador PerezKC1-4112
Josh SmithTOR1-2111
Nick LoftinKC2-4001
Brett BatemanTOR3-3000
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-4200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer Arrighetti (L)TOR4.26633
Randy Dobnak (W)KC6.04103

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +6
TOR +6
123456789
largest lead: KC 6 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 53%, KC 47% · Updated Sep 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.6 – 4.2 KC
Expected total
8.8
Blue JaysThe matchupRoyals
−112Our fair odds+112
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.12
4.0Runs / game4.3
4.3Allowed / game4.9
8.4Hits / game8.3
0.94Home runs / game1.04
2.8Walks drawn / game3.1
72−71Season record63−80
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · KC chance
Our model fair52.9%47.1%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays−11253%−12154.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+11247%+10149.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.4our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 14%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byKC wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 6.30 ERA, 10 Kstarted
KCRandy Dobnak SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·KC
Sep 5 at KC
last game
Sep 5 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 143+ games
TOR·KC
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.0
runs / game
4.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.9
72−71
season record
63−80
37−35
home record
37−34
35−36
away record
26−46
W4
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.4
hits / game
8.3
0.94
home runs / game
1.04
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.57
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

TOR · KC · 162 days
Toronto Blue JaysKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Sep 5at KCTOR 4 − 3
Sep 4at KCTOR 9 − 2
Aug 27at TORKC 13 − 2
Aug 26at TORTOR 3 − 0
Aug 25at TORKC 5 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at KCTOR 8 − 5
Sep 20, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at KCKC 20 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at TORKC 7 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2

TOR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Sep 5at KC4 − 3W
Sep 4at KC9 − 2W
Sep 3at CLE6 − 3W
Sep 2at CLE11 − 0W
Sep 1at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 30vs SEA7 − 0W
Aug 29vs SEA4 − 3W
Aug 28vs SEA8 − 1W
Aug 27vs KC2 − 13L
Aug 26vs KC3 − 0W

KC · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Sep 5vs TOR3 − 4L
Sep 4vs TOR2 − 9L
Sep 3vs MIA7 − 3W
Sep 2vs MIA6 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIA3 − 6L
Aug 30at CLE1 − 11L
Aug 29at CLE8 − 3W
Aug 28at CLE3 − 0W
Aug 27at TOR13 − 2W
Aug 26at TOR0 − 3L