bayesRatings

Royals at Blue Jays

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 26 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final KC 0 – TOR 3
← MLB / Aug 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000000000060
TOR00030000360
Team box
KC·TOR
6
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
5
109
pitches thrown
141
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan LukesTOR1-3113
Carter JensenKC2-3000
Jesus SanchezTOR2-3100
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-3000
Tyler TolbertKC1-2000
Nick LoftinKC1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy Dobnak (L)KC6.06315
Spencer MilesTOR2.02001
Chad Dallas (W)TOR2.20004
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.12001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 3 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 45%, TOR 55% · Updated Aug 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.4
RoyalsThe matchupBlue Jays
+122Our fair odds−122
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.11Power rating+0.02
4.2Runs / game3.9
4.9Allowed / game4.4
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.02Home runs / game0.93
3.2Walks drawn / game2.7
59−74Season record64−69
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.0%55.0%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12245%+13442.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12255%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCRandy Dobnak SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 14 Kstarted
TORSpencer Miles RP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 11.45 ERA, 7 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TOR
Aug 25 at TOR
last game
Aug 25 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 133+ games
KC·TOR
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.2
runs / game
3.9
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
59−74
season record
64−69
36−30
home record
33−34
23−44
away record
31−35
W9
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.02
home runs / game
0.93
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.44
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

KC · TOR · 151 days
Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Aug 25at TORKC 5 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at KCTOR 8 − 5
Sep 20, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at KCKC 20 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at TORKC 7 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at TORKC 9 − 3
May 1, 2024at TORKC 6 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at TORKC 4 − 1
Apr 29, 2024at TORTOR 6 − 5

KC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W9
Aug 25at TOR5 − 3W
Aug 23vs DET11 − 7W
Aug 22vs DET3 − 1W
Aug 21vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 20vs ATH6 − 2W
Aug 19vs ATH9 − 7W
Aug 18vs ATH4 − 3W
Aug 17vs ATH9 − 5W
Aug 16at LAA3 − 0W
Aug 15at LAA0 − 1L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 25vs KC3 − 5L
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W
Aug 19at TB6 − 7L
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W