bayesRatings

Royals at Blue Jays

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 25 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final KC 5 – TOR 3
← MLB / Aug 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC1000120015101
TOR1000000023101
Team box
KC·TOR
10
hits
10
0
home runs
0
9
walks
2
9
strikeouts
7
149
pitches thrown
174
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan LukesTOR2-4002
John RaveKC2-4101
Brett BatemanTOR3-5200
Salvador PerezKC1-4001
Isaac CollinsKC2-4000
Carter JensenKC1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (W)KC5.06115
Max Scherzer (L)TOR5.04254

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
KC +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · KC 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 44%, TOR 56% · Updated Aug 25

Expected margin
TOR by 0.5
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.4
RoyalsThe matchupBlue Jays
+125Our fair odds−125
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.12Power rating+0.03
4.2Runs / game3.9
4.9Allowed / game4.4
8.2Hits / game8.3
1.03Home runs / game0.94
3.1Walks drawn / game2.7
58−74Season record64−68
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TOR chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12544%+10947.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12556%−13156.7%———
SpreadTOR by 0.5
KCKansas City Royals+0.5our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.5 expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TORMax Scherzer SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TOR
Aug 23 vs DET
last game
Aug 23 at NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 132+ games
KC·TOR
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.2
runs / game
3.9
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.4
58−74
season record
64−68
36−30
home record
33−33
22−44
away record
31−35
W8
streak
L1
9−1
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.3
1.03
home runs / game
0.94
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.43
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

KC · TOR · 150 days
Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Sep 21, 2025at KCTOR 8 − 5
Sep 20, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at KCKC 20 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at TORKC 7 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at TORKC 9 − 3
May 1, 2024at TORKC 6 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at TORKC 4 − 1
Apr 29, 2024at TORTOR 6 − 5
Apr 25, 2024at KCKC 2 − 1

KC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Aug 23vs DET11 − 7W
Aug 22vs DET3 − 1W
Aug 21vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 20vs ATH6 − 2W
Aug 19vs ATH9 − 7W
Aug 18vs ATH4 − 3W
Aug 17vs ATH9 − 5W
Aug 16at LAA3 − 0W
Aug 15at LAA0 − 1L
Aug 14at LAA7 − 6W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W
Aug 19at TB6 − 7L
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W
Aug 14vs NYY3 − 1W
Aug 13vs BOS0 − 7L