bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Guardians

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 12:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TOR 6 – CLE 3
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000140001690
CLE001020000382
Team box
TOR·CLE
9
hits
8
0
home runs
0
9
walks
5
10
strikeouts
6
173
pitches thrown
200
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nathan LukesTOR2-5102
Austin HedgesCLE1-2002
Brett BatemanTOR3-5100
Steven KwanCLE2-5000
Angel GenaoCLE1-4101
Jesus SanchezTOR1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jose SorianoTOR4.26332
Spencer Miles (W)TOR1.10001
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01012
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE4.04554

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +4
TOR +4
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · TOR 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, CLE 51% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.8 TOR
Expected total
7.7
Blue JaysThe matchupGuardians
+103Our fair odds−103
3.8Expected runs4.0
+0.05Power rating+0.00
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game7.9
0.95Home runs / game0.94
2.7Walks drawn / game3.6
69−71Season record70−69
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CLE chance
Our model fair49.3%50.7%
Kalshi51.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10349%−10751.8%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10351%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.2our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more36%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 5.60 ERA, 15 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CLE
Sep 2 at CLE
last game
Sep 2 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 139+ games
TOR·CLE
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.1
69−71
season record
70−69
37−35
home record
33−37
32−36
away record
37−32
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
7.9
0.95
home runs / game
0.94
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.59
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TOR · CLE · 159 days
Toronto Blue JaysCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Sep 2at CLETOR 11 − 0
Sep 1at CLECLE 6 − 1
Apr 26at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 25at TORTOR 5 − 3
Apr 24at TORCLE 8 − 6
Jun 26, 2025at CLETOR 6 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2025at CLETOR 10 − 6
May 4, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 3

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Sep 2at CLE11 − 0W
Sep 1at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 30vs SEA7 − 0W
Aug 29vs SEA4 − 3W
Aug 28vs SEA8 − 1W
Aug 27vs KC2 − 13L
Aug 26vs KC3 − 0W
Aug 25vs KC3 − 5L
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 2vs TOR0 − 11L
Sep 1vs TOR6 − 1W
Aug 30vs KC11 − 1W
Aug 29vs KC3 − 8L
Aug 28vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 26at LAA4 − 3W
Aug 25at LAA8 − 6W
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W