bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Sep 2 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TOR 11 – CLE 0
← MLB / Sep 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR15100201111151
CLE000000000061
Team box
TOR·CLE
15
hits
6
2
home runs
0
2
walks
0
8
strikeouts
9
143
pitches thrown
152
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR3-4115
Josh SmithTOR1-2111
Chase DeLauterCLE3-4000
Nathan LukesTOR2-5001
Myles StrawTOR2-3201
Patrick BaileyCLE2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (W)TOR6.04004
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE5.19426

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +11
TOR +11
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · TOR 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 48%, CLE 52% · Updated Sep 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.6 TOR
Expected total
7.7
Blue JaysThe matchupGuardians
+107Our fair odds−107
3.6Expected runs4.0
+0.03Power rating+0.02
3.9Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game7.9
0.94Home runs / game0.94
2.7Walks drawn / game3.6
68−71Season record70−68
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10748%−13757.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10752%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.4our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 18%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 13%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 1.89 ERA, 26 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CLE
Sep 1 at CLE
last game
Sep 1 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 138+ games
TOR·CLE
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.9
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.1
68−71
season record
70−68
37−35
home record
33−36
31−36
away record
37−32
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
8−2
8.2
hits / game
7.9
0.94
home runs / game
0.94
2.7
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.58
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TOR · CLE · 158 days
Toronto Blue JaysCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Sep 1at CLECLE 6 − 1
Apr 26at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 25at TORTOR 5 − 3
Apr 24at TORCLE 8 − 6
Jun 26, 2025at CLETOR 6 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2025at CLETOR 10 − 6
May 4, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 3
May 2, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Sep 1at CLE1 − 6L
Aug 30vs SEA7 − 0W
Aug 29vs SEA4 − 3W
Aug 28vs SEA8 − 1W
Aug 27vs KC2 − 13L
Aug 26vs KC3 − 0W
Aug 25vs KC3 − 5L
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 1vs TOR6 − 1W
Aug 30vs KC11 − 1W
Aug 29vs KC3 − 8L
Aug 28vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 26at LAA4 − 3W
Aug 25at LAA8 − 6W
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W