bayesRatings

Mariners at Blue Jays

MLB · Saturday, Aug 29 · 2:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final SEA 3 – TOR 4
← MLB / Aug 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA010200000360
TOR00002200450
Team box
SEA·TOR
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
3
walks
7
10
strikeouts
6
154
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Cal RaleighSEA2-3211
Taylor WardSEA1-4002
Josh NaylorSEA2-4100
George SpringerTOR1-3001
Myles StrawTOR2-3200
Alejandro KirkTOR1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kade AndersonSEA4.13233
Jose Ferrer (L)SEA0.22220
Jose Soriano (W)TOR7.05326
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 1 · SEA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Aug 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.4 – 4.0 SEA
Expected total
8.3
MarinersThe matchupBlue Jays
+117Our fair odds−117
4.0Expected runs4.4
−0.06Power rating+0.02
3.9Runs / game3.9
4.4Allowed / game4.4
7.5Hits / game8.3
1.16Home runs / game0.95
3.4Walks drawn / game2.7
64−71Season record66−70
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+11746%−10350.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11754%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners+0.4our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 7%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 15%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAKade Anderson SP · last 1 start: 5.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 5 Kstarted
TORJose Soriano SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·TOR
Aug 28 at TOR
last game
Aug 28 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 135+ games
SEA·TOR
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.9
runs / game
3.9
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
64−71
season record
66−70
37−31
home record
35−35
27−40
away record
31−35
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.3
1.16
home runs / game
0.95
3.4
walks drawn / game
2.7
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.53
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

SEA · TOR · 154 days
Seattle MarinersToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 6−4
Aug 28at TORTOR 8 − 1
Jul 5at SEASEA 4 − 0
Jul 4at SEASEA 11 − 0
Jul 3at SEATOR 2 − 0
Oct 20, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3post
Oct 19, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 2post
Oct 17, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 2post
Oct 16, 2025at SEATOR 8 − 2post
Oct 15, 2025at SEATOR 13 − 4post
Oct 13, 2025at TORSEA 10 − 3post

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Aug 28at TOR1 − 8L
Aug 26vs PHI0 − 6L
Aug 25vs PHI4 − 1W
Aug 24vs PHI9 − 2W
Aug 23vs CHC2 − 19L
Aug 22vs CHC5 − 4W
Aug 21vs CHC6 − 5W
Aug 20at MIL4 − 7L
Aug 19at MIL7 − 5W
Aug 18at MIL0 − 22L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 28vs SEA8 − 1W
Aug 27vs KC2 − 13L
Aug 26vs KC3 − 0W
Aug 25vs KC3 − 5L
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W
Aug 19at TB6 − 7L
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W