bayesRatings

Royals at Blue Jays

MLB · Thursday, Aug 27 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final KC 13 – TOR 2
← MLB / Aug 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC22000601213160
TOR000002000281
Team box
KC·TOR
16
hits
8
3
home runs
1
6
walks
3
9
strikeouts
3
117
pitches thrown
192
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jac CaglianoneKC5-6316
Vinnie PasquantinoKC2-5113
George SpringerTOR2-3112
Carter JensenKC1-2211
Bobby Witt Jr.KC2-5301
Kyle IsbelKC1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Cameron (W)KC6.06223
Spencer Arrighetti (L)TOR4.05324

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +11
KC +11
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · KC 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 45%, TOR 55% · Updated Aug 27

Expected margin
TOR by 0.5
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.0 KC
Expected total
8.4
RoyalsThe matchupBlue Jays
+124Our fair odds−124
4.0Expected runs4.5
−0.11Power rating+0.03
4.2Runs / game3.9
4.9Allowed / game4.3
8.2Hits / game8.3
1.01Home runs / game0.93
3.1Walks drawn / game2.7
59−75Season record65−69
9−1Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · TOR chance
Our model fair44.6%55.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12445%−11252.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12455%−10751.8%———
SpreadTOR by 0.5
KCKansas City Royals+0.5our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Blue Jays by 0.5 expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 11%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more40%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 1.83 ERA, 12 Kstarted
TORSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 10.80 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·TOR
Aug 26 at TOR
last game
Aug 26 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
KC·TOR
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.2
runs / game
3.9
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.3
59−75
season record
65−69
36−30
home record
34−34
23−45
away record
31−35
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
8.3
1.01
home runs / game
0.93
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.43
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

KC · TOR · 152 days
Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 3−7
Aug 26at TORTOR 3 − 0
Aug 25at TORKC 5 − 3
Sep 21, 2025at KCTOR 8 − 5
Sep 20, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Sep 19, 2025at KCKC 20 − 1
Aug 3, 2025at TORKC 7 − 4
Aug 2, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 2
Aug 1, 2025at TORKC 9 − 3
May 1, 2024at TORKC 6 − 1
Apr 30, 2024at TORKC 4 − 1

KC · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Aug 26at TOR0 − 3L
Aug 25at TOR5 − 3W
Aug 23vs DET11 − 7W
Aug 22vs DET3 − 1W
Aug 21vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 20vs ATH6 − 2W
Aug 19vs ATH9 − 7W
Aug 18vs ATH4 − 3W
Aug 17vs ATH9 − 5W
Aug 16at LAA3 − 0W

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 26vs KC3 − 0W
Aug 25vs KC3 − 5L
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W
Aug 19at TB6 − 7L
Aug 18at TB10 − 5W
Aug 16vs NYY3 − 4L
Aug 15vs NYY4 − 1W