bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, Sep 1 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final TOR 1 – CLE 6
← MLB / Sep 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000010000130
CLE00002022681
Team box
TOR·CLE
3
hits
8
0
home runs
3
1
walks
3
14
strikeouts
3
141
pitches thrown
124
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-3312
Patrick BaileyCLE1-3112
Angel GenaoCLE1-2112
Jo AdellCLE2-4000
Jose RamirezCLE1-4000
Steven KwanCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Spencer MilesTOR1.01000
Spencer Arrighetti (L)TOR3.22212
Gavin Williams (W)CLE7.020113

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
TOR +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 5 · TOR 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 49%, CLE 51% · Updated Sep 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.7 TOR
Expected total
7.7
Blue JaysThe matchupGuardians
+105Our fair odds−105
3.7Expected runs4.0
+0.04Power rating+0.01
4.0Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game7.9
0.95Home runs / game0.93
2.8Walks drawn / game3.6
68−70Season record69−68
6−4Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · CLE chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+10549%+14640.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10551%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.3our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more38%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORSpencer Miles RP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 6 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 9.53 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·CLE
Aug 30 vs SEA
last game
Aug 30 vs KC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 137+ games
TOR·CLE
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.0
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.1
68−70
season record
69−68
37−35
home record
32−36
31−35
away record
37−32
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
7.9
0.95
home runs / game
0.93
2.8
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.59
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TOR · CLE · 157 days
Toronto Blue JaysCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Apr 26at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 25at TORTOR 5 − 3
Apr 24at TORCLE 8 − 6
Jun 26, 2025at CLETOR 6 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at CLECLE 5 − 4
Jun 24, 2025at CLETOR 10 − 6
May 4, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at TORCLE 5 − 3
May 2, 2025at TORTOR 5 − 3
Jun 23, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 5

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Aug 30vs SEA7 − 0W
Aug 29vs SEA4 − 3W
Aug 28vs SEA8 − 1W
Aug 27vs KC2 − 13L
Aug 26vs KC3 − 0W
Aug 25vs KC3 − 5L
Aug 23at NYY3 − 8L
Aug 22at NYY4 − 3W
Aug 21at NYY1 − 3L
Aug 20at TB5 − 1W

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Aug 30vs KC11 − 1W
Aug 29vs KC3 − 8L
Aug 28vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 26at LAA4 − 3W
Aug 25at LAA8 − 6W
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W