bayesRatings

Royals at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Aug 28 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final KC 3 – CLE 0
← MLB / Aug 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000010002390
CLE000000000061
Team box
KC·CLE
9
hits
6
1
home runs
0
2
walks
0
9
strikeouts
12
125
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carter JensenKC1-5112
Patrick BaileyCLE2-3000
Salvador PerezKC1-4001
Isaac CollinsKC2-3000
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4000
Jo AdellCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Wacha (W)KC8.040010
Steven Cruz (S)KC1.02002
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE6.07125

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · KC 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 45%, CLE 55% · Updated Aug 28

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.2 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
7.8
RoyalsThe matchupGuardians
+120Our fair odds−120
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.10Power rating+0.01
4.3Runs / game4.1
4.9Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.03Home runs / game0.93
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
60−75Season record68−66
9−1Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair45.5%54.5%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+12045%+10947.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−12055%−13757.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
KCKansas City Royals+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 3.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CLE
Aug 27 at TOR
last game
Aug 26 at LAA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 134+ games
KC·CLE
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.3
runs / game
4.1
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.1
60−75
season record
68−66
36−30
home record
31−34
24−45
away record
37−32
W1
streak
W7
9−1
last 10
8−2
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.03
home runs / game
0.93
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.43
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

KC · CLE · 153 days
Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
May 7at KCCLE 8 − 5
May 6at KCCLE 3 − 1
May 5at KCKC 5 − 3
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at CLEKC 4 − 3
Sep 9, 2025at CLECLE 2 − 0

KC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Aug 27at TOR13 − 2W
Aug 26at TOR0 − 3L
Aug 25at TOR5 − 3W
Aug 23vs DET11 − 7W
Aug 22vs DET3 − 1W
Aug 21vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 20vs ATH6 − 2W
Aug 19vs ATH9 − 7W
Aug 18vs ATH4 − 3W
Aug 17vs ATH9 − 5W

CLE · Last 10

8−2 · streak W7
Aug 26at LAA4 − 3W
Aug 25at LAA8 − 6W
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L
Aug 18vs SF8 − 1W
Aug 16vs SD0 − 5L