bayesRatings

Royals at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, Aug 30 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final KC 1 – CLE 11
← MLB / Aug 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC100000000171
CLE3033020011130
Team box
KC·CLE
7
hits
13
0
home runs
2
3
walks
4
9
strikeouts
5
154
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose RamirezCLE2-3214
Jo AdellCLE3-4103
Nathaniel LoweCLE1-4113
Chase DeLauterCLE4-4301
Steven KwanCLE2-3300
Salvador PerezKC1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (L)KC3.29922
Parker Messick (W)CLE6.05125

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +10
KC +10
123456789
largest lead: CLE 10 · KC 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Aug 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.6 KC
Expected total
7.7
RoyalsThe matchupGuardians
+116Our fair odds−116
3.6Expected runs4.0
−0.08Power rating−0.01
4.3Runs / game4.0
4.8Allowed / game4.1
8.3Hits / game7.9
1.03Home runs / game0.92
3.1Walks drawn / game3.6
62−75Season record68−68
9−1Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.3%53.7%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11646%+15938.6%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11654%−19165.6%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.4our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more38%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 6.32 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CLE
Aug 29 at CLE
last game
Aug 29 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 136+ games
KC·CLE
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
4.3
runs / game
4.0
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
62−75
season record
68−68
36−30
home record
31−36
26−45
away record
37−32
W3
streak
L2
9−1
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
7.9
1.03
home runs / game
0.92
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.3
0.44
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

KC · CLE · 155 days
Kansas City RoyalsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 5−5
Aug 29at CLEKC 8 − 3
Aug 28at CLEKC 3 − 0
May 7at KCCLE 8 − 5
May 6at KCCLE 3 − 1
May 5at KCKC 5 − 3
May 4at KCKC 6 − 2
Apr 8at CLECLE 10 − 2
Apr 7at CLECLE 2 − 1
Apr 6at CLEKC 4 − 2
Sep 11, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2

KC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Aug 29at CLE8 − 3W
Aug 28at CLE3 − 0W
Aug 27at TOR13 − 2W
Aug 26at TOR0 − 3L
Aug 25at TOR5 − 3W
Aug 23vs DET11 − 7W
Aug 22vs DET3 − 1W
Aug 21vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 20vs ATH6 − 2W
Aug 19vs ATH9 − 7W

CLE · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Aug 29vs KC3 − 8L
Aug 28vs KC0 − 3L
Aug 26at LAA4 − 3W
Aug 25at LAA8 − 6W
Aug 24at LAA4 − 2W
Aug 23at COL7 − 2W
Aug 22at COL4 − 3W
Aug 21at COL9 − 1W
Aug 20vs SF5 − 2W
Aug 19vs SF0 − 1L