bayesRatings

Marlins at Royals

MLB · Thursday, Sep 3 · 6:40 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIA 3 – KC 7
← MLB / Sep 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA110100000360
KC002020037110
Team box
MIA·KC
6
hits
11
2
home runs
1
2
walks
1
10
strikeouts
5
130
pitches thrown
134
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Carter JensenKC3-4313
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4102
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4111
Agustin RamirezMIA1-4111
Salvador PerezKC1-4001
Kyle IsbelKC2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sandy Alcantara (L)MIA6.06412
Michael Wacha (W)KC6.06327

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: KC 4 · MIA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 51%, KC 49% · Updated Sep 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIA 4.6 – 4.2 KC
Expected total
8.8
MarlinsThe matchupRoyals
−105Our fair odds+105
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.01Power rating−0.11
4.4Runs / game4.3
4.2Allowed / game4.9
8.3Hits / game8.3
1.01Home runs / game1.04
3.4Walks drawn / game3.2
71−69Season record62−78
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · KC chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins−10551%+10149.7%———
KCKansas City Royals+10549%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami Marlins−0.3our margin————
KCKansas City Royals+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 6%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 13%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 16%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 9%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byKC wins by →
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more39%
Miami Marlins wins by 3 or more29%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 10 Kstarted
KCMichael Wacha SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·KC
Sep 2 at KC
last game
Sep 2 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 140+ games
MIA·KC
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.4
runs / game
4.3
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.9
71−69
season record
62−78
42−27
home record
36−32
29−42
away record
26−46
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
8.3
1.01
home runs / game
1.04
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.64
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

MIA · KC · 159 days
Miami MarlinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 3−7
Sep 2at KCMIA 9 − 6
Sep 1at KCMIA 6 − 3
Jul 20, 2025at MIAKC 7 − 4
Jul 19, 2025at MIAMIA 3 − 1
Jul 18, 2025at MIAMIA 8 − 7
Jun 26, 2024at KCKC 5 − 1
Jun 25, 2024at KCMIA 2 − 1
Jun 24, 2024at KCKC 4 − 1
Jun 7, 2023at MIAMIA 6 − 1
Jun 6, 2023at MIAMIA 6 − 1

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Sep 2at KC9 − 6W
Sep 1at KC6 − 3W
Aug 31at WSH3 − 6L
Aug 30at WSH6 − 2W
Aug 29at WSH4 − 5L
Aug 28at WSH2 − 9L
Aug 26vs BOS4 − 0W
Aug 25vs BOS3 − 7L
Aug 24vs BOS2 − 4L
Aug 23vs WSH6 − 2W

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Sep 2vs MIA6 − 9L
Sep 1vs MIA3 − 6L
Aug 30at CLE1 − 11L
Aug 29at CLE8 − 3W
Aug 28at CLE3 − 0W
Aug 27at TOR13 − 2W
Aug 26at TOR0 − 3L
Aug 25at TOR5 − 3W
Aug 23vs DET11 − 7W
Aug 22vs DET3 − 1W