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Nuggets at Timberwolves

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 8:30 PM CT · Target Center · Final DEN 127 – MIN 114
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN34234525127
MIN30352920114
Team box
DEN·MIN
46-88
field goals
40-85
13-26
3-pointers
10-32
22-25
free throws
24-29
46
rebounds
33
24
assists
19
14
turnovers
15
56
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jamal MurrayDEN374363
Nikola JokicDEN36251910
Jaden McDanielsMIN352531
Julius RandleMIN352473
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN322013
Naz ReidMIN271872

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +15
DEN +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 9 · DEN 15lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 41%, MIN 59% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 4.6
Expected score
MIN 115.4 – 110.8 DEN
Expected total
226.2
NuggetsThe matchupTimberwolves
+146Our fair odds−146
110.8Expected points115.4
+0.53Power rating+0.68
132.0Points / game114.0
124.0Allowed / game117.3
52.5FG%47.3
34.53P%38.0
43.0Rebounds / game44.3
1−1Season record2−1
5−5Last 105−5
—OutAnthony Edwards · Rocco Zikarsky

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair40.6%59.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Nuggets+14641%————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−14659%————
SpreadMIN by 4.6
DENDenver Nuggets+4.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.2
Over226.2our total————
Under226.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 4.6 expected
Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 42 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 43 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 44 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 45 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 46 points: <1%
← DEN wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more53%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more37%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.2 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted
Minnesota Timberwolves
GMike Conleystarted
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·MIN
Oct 25, 2025 vs PHX
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs IND
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
MINAnthony Edwards · right hamstring; strainOut
MINRocco Zikarsky · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
DEN·MIN
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.68
132.0
points / game
114.0
124.0
points allowed / game
117.3
1−1
season record
2−1
1−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
52.5
FG%
47.3
34.5
3P%
38.0
43.0
rebounds / game
44.3
31.5
assists / game
21.3
14.5
turnovers / game
15.0
59.0
points in paint / game
46.7

Rating Trend

DEN · MIN · 7 days
Denver NuggetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 7−3
Apr 1, 2025at DENMIN 140 − 139
Mar 12, 2025at DENMIN 115 − 95
Jan 25, 2025at MINMIN 133 − 104
Nov 1, 2024at MINMIN 119 − 116
May 19, 2024at DENMIN 98 − 90post
May 16, 2024at MINMIN 115 − 70post
May 14, 2024at DENDEN 112 − 97post
May 12, 2024at MINDEN 115 − 107post
May 10, 2024at MINDEN 117 − 90post
May 6, 2024at DENMIN 106 − 80post

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L
May 11, 2025vs OKC87 − 92L
May 9, 2025vs OKC113 − 104W
May 7, 2025at OKC106 − 149L
May 5, 2025at OKC121 − 119W
May 3, 2025vs LAC120 − 101W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025vs IND114 − 110W
Oct 24, 2025at LAL110 − 128L
Oct 22, 2025at POR118 − 114W
May 28, 2025at OKC94 − 124L
May 26, 2025vs OKC126 − 128L
May 24, 2025vs OKC143 − 101W
May 22, 2025at OKC103 − 118L
May 20, 2025at OKC88 − 114L
May 14, 2025vs GS121 − 110W
May 12, 2025at GS117 − 110W