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Thunder at Mavericks

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final OKC 101 – DAL 94
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC28203914101
DAL2418272594
Team box
OKC·DAL
42-90
field goals
33-87
6-30
3-pointers
12-39
11-13
free throws
16-22
55
rebounds
36
21
assists
20
13
turnovers
9
68
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Anthony DavisDAL3826113
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC352348
Chet HolmgrenOKC3218112
Ajay MitchellOKC271771
Isaiah HartensteinOKC3016120
P.J. WashingtonDAL381593

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +22
OKC +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 0 · OKC 22lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 75%, DAL 25% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 8.3
Expected score
OKC 118.4 – 110.1 DAL
Expected total
228.5
ThunderThe matchupMavericks
−297Our fair odds+297
118.4Expected points110.1
+1.37Power rating+0.03
127.7Points / game112.7
119.7Allowed / game123.7
45.0FG%46.3
30.73P%36.7
49.3Rebounds / game44.7
3−0Season record1−2
7−3Last 103−7
Alex Caruso · Isaiah Joe
Jalen Williams · Kenrich Williams
Nikola TopicOutDante Exum · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · DAL chance
Our model fair74.8%25.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−29775%————
DALDallas Mavericks+29725%————
SpreadOKC by 8.3
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.3our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+8.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.5
Over228.5our total————
Under228.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.3 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byDAL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more47%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.5 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GKlay Thompsonstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·DAL
Oct 25, 2025 at ATL
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · n/a; concussion protocolOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; contusionDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · personal reasonsQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
OKC·DAL
+1.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
127.7
points / game
112.7
119.7
points allowed / game
123.7
3−0
season record
1−2
1−0
home record
1−2
2−0
away record
0−0
W3
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
45.0
FG%
46.3
30.7
3P%
36.7
49.3
rebounds / game
44.7
22.3
assists / game
25.0
13.0
turnovers / game
19.0
50.0
points in paint / game
48.0

Rating Trend

OKC · DAL · 7 days
Oklahoma City ThunderDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 7−3
Jan 23, 2025at OKCDAL 121 − 115
Jan 17, 2025at DALDAL 106 − 98
Dec 10, 2024at OKCOKC 118 − 104
Nov 17, 2024at OKCDAL 121 − 119
May 18, 2024at DALDAL 117 − 116post
May 15, 2024at OKCDAL 104 − 92post
May 13, 2024at DALOKC 100 − 96post
May 11, 2024at DALDAL 105 − 101post
May 9, 2024at OKCDAL 119 − 110post
May 7, 2024at OKCOKC 117 − 95post

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W
Jun 11, 2025at IND107 − 116L
Jun 8, 2025vs IND123 − 107W
Jun 5, 2025vs IND110 − 111L

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W
Apr 9, 2025vs LAL97 − 112L
Apr 5, 2025at LAC104 − 135L
Apr 4, 2025at LAC91 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025vs ATL120 − 118W
Mar 31, 2025vs BKN109 − 113L