bayesRatings

Raptors at Spurs

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final TOR 103 – SA 121
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR29212825103
SA41282626121
Team box
TOR·SA
37-79
field goals
39-67
12-32
3-pointers
13-27
17-23
free throws
30-36
20
rebounds
44
29
assists
29
15
turnovers
21
44
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
RJ BarrettTOR322522
Victor WembanyamaSA3124154
Stephon CastleSA312254
Collin Murray-BoylesTOR241931
Harrison BarnesSA321805
Immanuel QuickleyTOR321537

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +22
TOR +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 22 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 40%, SA 60% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 2.4
Expected score
SA 116.9 – 114.5 TOR
Expected total
231.3
RaptorsThe matchupSpurs
+153Our fair odds−153
114.5Expected points116.9
−0.59Power rating−0.39
127.7Points / game121.0
126.3Allowed / game105.0
51.7FG%51.0
34.73P%38.0
46.0Rebounds / game51.3
1−2Season record3−0
3−7Last 106−4
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky HepburnOutDe'Aaron Fox · Jeremy Sochan
Kelly Olynyk · Lindy Waters III
Luke Kornet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · SA chance
Our model fair39.5%60.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+15340%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−15360%————
SpreadSA by 2.4
TORToronto Raptors+2.4our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.3
Over231.3our total————
Under231.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 2.4 expected
Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%
← TOR wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more47%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more32%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

231.3 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.549%
Total over 241.530%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·SA
Oct 26, 2025 at DAL
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs BKN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprainOut
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgeryOut
SALindy Waters III · bilateral eye; procedureOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
TOR·SA
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
127.7
points / game
121.0
126.3
points allowed / game
105.0
1−2
season record
3−0
0−1
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
2−0
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
6−4
51.7
FG%
51.0
34.7
3P%
38.0
46.0
rebounds / game
51.3
31.3
assists / game
23.0
17.0
turnovers / game
16.3
66.0
points in paint / game
60.0

Rating Trend

TOR · SA · 7 days
Toronto RaptorsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SA 3−5
Apr 13, 2025at SASA 125 − 118
Mar 23, 2025at TORSA 123 − 89
Feb 12, 2024at TORSA 122 − 99
Nov 5, 2023at SATOR 123 − 116
Feb 8, 2023at TORTOR 112 − 98
Nov 2, 2022at SATOR 143 − 100
Mar 9, 2022at SATOR 119 − 104
Jan 4, 2022at TORTOR 129 − 104

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Oct 26, 2025at DAL129 − 139L
Oct 24, 2025vs MIL116 − 122L
Oct 22, 2025at ATL138 − 118W
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025vs CHA126 − 96W
Apr 6, 2025at BKN120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025vs DET105 − 117L
Apr 3, 2025vs POR103 − 112L
Apr 1, 2025at CHI118 − 137L

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025at LAC117 − 122L
Apr 6, 2025at POR109 − 120L
Apr 4, 2025vs CLE113 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025at DEN113 − 106W