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Hornets at Heat

NBA · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 6:30 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final CHA 117 – MIA 144
← NBA / Oct 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA34262829117
MIA37392939144
Team box
CHA·MIA
40-90
field goals
52-96
18-45
3-pointers
20-45
19-23
free throws
20-22
41
rebounds
37
26
assists
34
18
turnovers
11
44
points in paint
58
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA282845
Bam AdebayoMIA302662
Andrew WigginsMIA302122
LaMelo BallCHA282089
Kon KnueppelCHA271934
Collin SextonCHA271856

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +29
CHA +29
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 29 · CHA 6lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 24%, MIA 76% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 9.9
Expected score
MIA 113.1 – 103.2 CHA
Expected total
216.3
HornetsThe matchupHeat
+323Our fair odds−323
103.2Expected points113.1
−1.00Power rating−0.04
132.0Points / game127.3
118.3Allowed / game115.3
50.7FG%49.3
41.33P%38.7
49.0Rebounds / game51.3
2−1Season record2−1
2−8Last 103−7
Antonio Reeves · Brandon Miller
Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Josh GreenOutKasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · MIA chance
Our model fair23.7%76.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+32324%————
MIAMiami Heat−32376%————
SpreadMIA by 9.9
CHACharlotte Hornets+9.9our margin————
MIAMiami Heat−9.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.3
Over216.3our total————
Under216.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Heat by 9.9 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 52 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 51 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 50 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 49 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 48 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 47 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 46 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 45 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 44 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 43 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 9 points: 3%Miami Heat by 10 points: 3%Miami Heat by 11 points: 3%Miami Heat by 12 points: 3%Miami Heat by 13 points: 3%Miami Heat by 14 points: 3%Miami Heat by 15 points: 3%Miami Heat by 16 points: 2%Miami Heat by 17 points: 2%Miami Heat by 18 points: 2%Miami Heat by 19 points: 2%Miami Heat by 20 points: 2%Miami Heat by 21 points: 2%Miami Heat by 22 points: 2%Miami Heat by 23 points: 2%Miami Heat by 24 points: 2%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 27 points: 1%Miami Heat by 28 points: 1%Miami Heat by 29 points: 1%Miami Heat by 30 points: 1%Miami Heat by 31 points: 1%Miami Heat by 32 points: 1%Miami Heat by 33 points: 1%Miami Heat by 34 points: 1%Miami Heat by 35 points: 1%Miami Heat by 36 points: 1%Miami Heat by 37 points: 1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 47 points: <1%Miami Heat by 48 points: <1%Miami Heat by 49 points: <1%Miami Heat by 50 points: <1%Miami Heat by 51 points: <1%Miami Heat by 52 points: <1%
← CHA wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Heat wins by 5 or more66%
Miami Heat wins by 10 or more51%
Miami Heat wins by 15 or more36%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.3 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.569%
Total over 216.549%
Total over 226.530%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·MIA
Oct 26, 2025 at WSH
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs NY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; subluxationOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
CHATre Mann · jaw; contusionQuestionable
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; sorenessQuestionable
MIASimone Fontecchio · left calf; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CHA·MIA
−1.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
132.0
points / game
127.3
118.3
points allowed / game
115.3
2−1
season record
2−1
1−0
home record
1−0
1−1
away record
1−1
W1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
3−7
50.7
FG%
49.3
41.3
3P%
38.7
49.0
rebounds / game
51.3
31.0
assists / game
28.3
15.3
turnovers / game
18.3
56.7
points in paint / game
58.0

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 7−3
Mar 23, 2025at MIAMIA 122 − 105
Mar 10, 2025at MIACHA 105 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at CHAMIA 98 − 94
Oct 26, 2024at CHAMIA 114 − 106
Jan 14, 2024at MIAMIA 104 − 87
Dec 13, 2023at MIAMIA 115 − 104
Dec 11, 2023at CHAMIA 116 − 114
Nov 14, 2023at CHAMIA 111 − 105
Feb 25, 2023at CHACHA 108 − 103
Jan 29, 2023at CHACHA 122 − 117

CHA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Oct 26, 2025at WSH139 − 113W
Oct 25, 2025at PHI121 − 125L
Oct 22, 2025vs BKN136 − 117W
Apr 13, 2025at BOS86 − 93L
Apr 11, 2025at BOS94 − 130L
Apr 9, 2025at TOR96 − 126L
Apr 8, 2025vs MEM100 − 124L
Apr 6, 2025vs CHI117 − 131L
Apr 4, 2025vs SAC102 − 125L
Apr 2, 2025at IND105 − 119L

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L
Apr 13, 2025vs WSH118 − 119L
Apr 11, 2025at NO153 − 104W
Apr 9, 2025at CHI111 − 119L