bayesRatings

76ers at Wizards

NBA · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final PHI 139 – WSH 134
← NBA / Oct 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
PHI3236263213139
WSH403238168134
Team box
PHI·WSH
45-100
field goals
51-107
17-42
3-pointers
17-43
32-37
free throws
15-21
55
rebounds
50
26
assists
33
14
turnovers
16
50
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tyrese MaxeyPHI4739310
Alex SarrWSH3431115
Joel EmbiidPHI232575
Quentin GrimesPHI392373
Kyshawn GeorgeWSH402097
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI4417111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +19
PHI +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: WSH 19 · PHI 6lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 64%, WSH 36% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 7.7
Expected score
PHI 119.0 – 111.4 WSH
Expected total
230.4
76ersThe matchupWizards
−181Our fair odds+181
119.0Expected points111.4
−0.45Power rating−1.29
126.0Points / game116.7
120.3Allowed / game126.3
47.3FG%46.0
42.33P%37.0
39.7Rebounds / game48.0
3−0Season record1−2
4−6Last 103−7
Dominick Barlow · Jared McCain
Paul GeorgeOutBilal Coulibaly

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · WSH chance
Our model fair64.4%35.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−18164%————
WSHWashington Wizards+18136%————
SpreadPHI by 7.7
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers−7.7our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+7.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.4
Over230.4our total————
Under230.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia 76ers by 7.7 expected
Philadelphia 76ers by 48 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia 76ers by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 33 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 24 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia 76ers by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 19 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 17 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 16 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 15 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 14 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 13 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 12 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 11 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 10 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 9 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 7 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 6 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 5 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 4 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 3 points: 3%Philadelphia 76ers by 2 points: 2%Philadelphia 76ers by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 43 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 44 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 45 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 46 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 47 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 48 points: <1%
← PHI wins byWSH wins by →
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 5 or more62%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 10 or more45%
Philadelphia 76ers wins by 15 or more30%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Philadelphia 76ers
GKelly Oubre Jr.started
GTyrese Maxeystarted
GVJ Edgecombestarted
FJustin Edwardsstarted
CJoel Embiidstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBub Carringtonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·WSH
Oct 27, 2025 vs ORL
last game
Oct 26, 2025 vs CHA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 5:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers
PHIDominick Barlow · right elbow; lacerationOut
PHIJared McCain · right thumb; surgery recoveryOut
PHIPaul George · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
Washington Wizards
WSHBilal Coulibaly · right hand; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
PHI·WSH
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
−1.29
126.0
points / game
116.7
120.3
points allowed / game
126.3
3−0
season record
1−2
2−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
1−1
W3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
47.3
FG%
46.0
42.3
3P%
37.0
39.7
rebounds / game
48.0
25.7
assists / game
25.0
12.0
turnovers / game
15.0
44.7
points in paint / game
43.3

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 3−7
Apr 9, 2025at WSHPHI 122 − 103
Mar 26, 2025at PHIWSH 119 − 114
Jan 8, 2025at PHIPHI 109 − 103
Feb 10, 2024at WSHPHI 119 − 113
Dec 11, 2023at PHIPHI 146 − 101
Dec 6, 2023at WSHPHI 131 − 126
Nov 6, 2023at PHIPHI 146 − 128
Mar 12, 2023at PHIPHI 112 − 93
Dec 27, 2022at WSHWSH 116 − 111
Nov 2, 2022at PHIWSH 121 − 111

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 27, 2025vs ORL136 − 124W
Oct 25, 2025vs CHA125 − 121W
Oct 22, 2025at BOS117 − 116W
Apr 13, 2025vs CHI102 − 122L
Apr 11, 2025vs ATL110 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025at WSH122 − 103W
Apr 7, 2025at MIA105 − 117L
Apr 5, 2025vs MIN109 − 114L
Apr 3, 2025vs MIL113 − 126L
Apr 1, 2025at NY91 − 105L

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025vs CHA113 − 139L
Oct 24, 2025at DAL117 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025at MIL120 − 133L
Apr 13, 2025at MIA119 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at CHI89 − 119L
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI103 − 122L
Apr 8, 2025at IND98 − 104L
Apr 6, 2025at BOS90 − 124L
Apr 3, 2025vs ORL97 − 109L
Apr 2, 2025vs SAC116 − 111W