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Pelicans at Nuggets

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 29 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final NO 88 – DEN 122
← NBA / Oct 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO2522113088
DEN34193930122
Team box
NO·DEN
32-85
field goals
48-90
7-34
3-pointers
14-42
17-29
free throws
12-14
36
rebounds
56
17
assists
40
14
turnovers
14
44
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Nikola JokicDEN28211210
Jeremiah FearsNO302116
Christian BraunDEN271764
Jamal MurrayDEN251726
Tim Hardaway Jr.DEN141111
Zion WilliamsonNO261102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +41
NO +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 41 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 19%, DEN 81% · Updated Oct 29, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 12.1
Expected score
DEN 123.2 – 111.2 NO
Expected total
234.4
PelicansThe matchupNuggets
+431Our fair odds−431
111.2Expected points123.2
−0.74Power rating+0.52
109.3Points / game130.3
123.3Allowed / game120.7
40.7FG%52.3
31.03P%39.7
42.3Rebounds / game44.0
0−3Season record2−1
0−10Last 105−5
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Kevon Looney · Trey AlexanderOutCurtis Jones · DaRon Holmes II
Tamar Bates

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · DEN chance
Our model fair18.8%81.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+43119%————
DENDenver Nuggets−43181%————
SpreadDEN by 12.1
NONew Orleans Pelicans+12.1our margin————
DENDenver Nuggets−12.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 234.4
Over234.4our total————
Under234.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Nuggets by 12.1 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 53 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 1 point: 2%Denver Nuggets by 2 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 3 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 4 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 5 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 6 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 7 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 8 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 9 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 10 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 11 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 12 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 13 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 14 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 15 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 16 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 17 points: 3%Denver Nuggets by 18 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 19 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 20 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 21 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 22 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 23 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 24 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 25 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 26 points: 2%Denver Nuggets by 27 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 28 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 29 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 30 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 31 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 32 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 33 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 34 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 35 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 36 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 37 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 38 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 39 points: 1%Denver Nuggets by 40 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 41 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 42 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 43 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 44 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 45 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 46 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 47 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 48 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 49 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 50 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 51 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 52 points: <1%Denver Nuggets by 53 points: <1%
← NO wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Nuggets wins by 5 or more71%
Denver Nuggets wins by 10 or more57%
Denver Nuggets wins by 15 or more42%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

234.4 expected
184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 224.568%
Total over 234.549%
Total over 244.530%
Total from 225 to 24438%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDeAndre Jordanstarted
Denver Nuggets
GJamal Murraystarted
GChristian Braunstarted
FAaron Gordonstarted
FCameron Johnsonstarted
CNikola Jokicstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·DEN
Oct 27, 2025 vs BOS
last game
Oct 27, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOKevon Looney · left knee; sprainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · left foot; bone contusionQuestionable
Denver Nuggets
DENCurtis Jones · g league - two-wayOut
DENDaRon Holmes II · g league - on assignmentOut
DENTamar Bates · g league - two-wayOut
DENCameron Johnson · right shoulder; inflammationQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
NO·DEN
−0.74
rating (0 = average)
+0.52
109.3
points / game
130.3
123.3
points allowed / game
120.7
0−3
season record
2−1
0−2
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L3
streak
W2
0−10
last 10
5−5
40.7
FG%
52.3
31.0
3P%
39.7
42.3
rebounds / game
44.0
20.3
assists / game
29.0
14.7
turnovers / game
14.3
54.7
points in paint / game
58.0

Rating Trend

NO · DEN · 2 days
New Orleans PelicansDenver Nuggets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DEN 7−3
Feb 5, 2025at DENDEN 144 − 119
Feb 3, 2025at DENDEN 125 − 113
Dec 22, 2024at NODEN 132 − 129
Nov 15, 2024at NONO 101 − 94
Jan 12, 2024at DENDEN 125 − 113
Nov 17, 2023at NONO 115 − 110
Nov 6, 2023at DENDEN 134 − 116
Mar 30, 2023at DENNO 107 − 88
Jan 31, 2023at DENDEN 122 − 113
Jan 24, 2023at NODEN 99 − 98

NO · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS90 − 122L
Oct 24, 2025vs SA116 − 120L
Oct 22, 2025at MEM122 − 128L
Apr 13, 2025vs OKC100 − 115L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIA104 − 153L
Apr 10, 2025at MIL111 − 136L
Apr 8, 2025at BKN114 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs MIL107 − 111L
Apr 4, 2025at LAL108 − 124L
Apr 2, 2025at LAC98 − 114L

DEN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 27, 2025at MIN127 − 114W
Oct 25, 2025vs PHX133 − 111W
Oct 23, 2025at GS131 − 137L
May 18, 2025at OKC93 − 125L
May 15, 2025vs OKC119 − 107W
May 13, 2025at OKC105 − 112L
May 11, 2025vs OKC87 − 92L
May 9, 2025vs OKC113 − 104W
May 7, 2025at OKC106 − 149L
May 5, 2025at OKC121 − 119W