bayesRatings

Thunder at Spurs

NBA · Thursday, May 28 · 7:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final OKC 91 – SA 118
← NBA / May 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC2231132591
SA35253226118
Team box
OKC·SA
35-94
field goals
41-88
10-40
3-pointers
15-41
11-12
free throws
21-25
42
rebounds
52
22
assists
30
13
turnovers
13
38
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Victor WembanyamaSA2828102
Dylan HarperSA221864
Stephon CastleSA321759
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC281514
Jared McCainOKC271326
Devin VassellSA261212

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +28
OKC +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 28 · OKC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 55%, SA 45% · Updated May 28

Expected margin
OKC by 2.6
Expected score
OKC 114.5 – 112.0 SA
Expected total
226.5
ThunderThe matchupSpurs
−122Our fair odds+122
114.5Expected points112.0
+1.37Power rating+0.93
119.0Points / game119.7
107.9Allowed / game111.7
48.5FG%48.4
36.43P%35.8
44.1Rebounds / game47.0
64−18 · 11−2 postSeason record62−21 · 10−6 post
8−2Last 106−4
Ajay Mitchell · Thomas SorberOut—

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · SA chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−12255%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+12245%————
SpreadOKC by 2.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−2.6our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+2.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.5
Over226.5our total————
Under226.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 2.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%
← OKC wins bySA wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more47%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more32%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.5 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJared McCainstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·SA
May 26 vs SA
last game
May 26 at OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · May 28, 5:00 PM ET
OKCAjay Mitchell · right soleus; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCJalen Williams · left hamstring; injury management- strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
OKC·SA
+1.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.93
119.0
points / game
119.7
107.9
points allowed / game
111.7
64−18 · 11−2 post
season record
62−21 · 10−6 post
34−8
home record
32−8
30−10
away record
30−13
W1
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
48.5
FG%
48.4
36.4
3P%
35.8
44.1
rebounds / game
47.0
25.8
assists / game
28.1
12.6
turnovers / game
13.4
49.2
points in paint / game
52.0

Rating Trend

OKC · SA · 196 days
Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 6−4
May 26at OKCOKC 127 − 114post
May 24at SASA 103 − 82post
May 22at SAOKC 123 − 108post
May 20at OKCOKC 122 − 113post
May 18at OKCSA 122 − 115post
Feb 4at SASA 116 − 106
Jan 13at OKCOKC 119 − 98
Dec 25, 2025at OKCSA 117 − 102
Dec 23, 2025at SASA 130 − 110
Dec 13, 2025at OKCSA 111 − 109

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
May 26vs SA127 − 114W
May 24at SA82 − 103L
May 22at SA123 − 108W
May 20vs SA122 − 113W
May 18vs SA115 − 122L
May 11at LAL115 − 110W
May 9at LAL131 − 108W
May 7vs LAL125 − 107W
May 5vs LAL108 − 90W
Apr 27at PHX131 − 122W

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 26at OKC114 − 127L
May 24vs OKC103 − 82W
May 22vs OKC108 − 123L
May 20at OKC113 − 122L
May 18at OKC122 − 115W
May 15at MIN139 − 109W
May 12vs MIN126 − 97W
May 10at MIN109 − 114L
May 8at MIN115 − 108W
May 6vs MIN133 − 95W