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Thunder at Suns

NBA · Monday, Apr 27 · 8:30 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final OKC 131 – PHX 122
← NBA / Apr 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC37383125131
PHX33343124122
Team box
OKC·PHX
44-82
field goals
48-90
17-34
3-pointers
14-39
26-30
free throws
12-16
39
rebounds
33
28
assists
24
17
turnovers
12
50
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC383128
Chet HolmgrenOKC3424123
Devin BookerPHX412406
Jalen GreenPHX392364
Dillon BrooksPHX422343
Ajay MitchellOKC342246

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +16
OKC +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 7 · OKC 16lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 73%, PHX 27% · Updated Apr 27

Expected margin
OKC by 9.2
Expected score
OKC 115.1 – 106.0 PHX
Expected total
221.1
ThunderThe matchupSuns
−267Our fair odds+267
115.1Expected points106.0
+1.32Power rating+0.09
119.0Points / game112.6
107.9Allowed / game111.1
48.5FG%45.6
36.43P%36.0
44.1Rebounds / game43.1
64−18 · 3−0 postSeason record45−37 · 0−3 post
8−2Last 103−7
Jalen Williams · Thomas SorberOutMark Williams

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · PHX chance
Our model fair72.7%27.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−26773%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+26727%————
SpreadOKC by 9.2
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.2our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+9.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.1
Over221.1our total————
Under221.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.2 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byPHX wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more66%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more50%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.1 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAjay Mitchellstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
GJalen Greenstarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
FOso Ighodarostarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·PHX
Apr 25 at PHX
last game
Apr 25 vs OKC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Apr 27, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCJalen Williams · left hamstring; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXMark Williams · left foot third metatarsal; stress reactionOut
PHXJordan Goodwin · left calf; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
OKC·PHX
+1.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
119.0
points / game
112.6
107.9
points allowed / game
111.1
64−18 · 3−0 post
season record
45−37 · 0−3 post
34−8
home record
25−16
30−10
away record
20−21
W3
streak
L3
8−2
last 10
3−7
48.5
FG%
45.6
36.4
3P%
36.0
44.1
rebounds / game
43.1
25.8
assists / game
24.6
12.6
turnovers / game
14.5
49.2
points in paint / game
43.1

Rating Trend

OKC · PHX · 168 days
Oklahoma City ThunderPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 2−8
Apr 25at PHXOKC 121 − 109post
Apr 22at OKCOKC 120 − 107post
Apr 19at OKCOKC 119 − 84post
Apr 12at OKCPHX 135 − 103
Feb 11at PHXOKC 136 − 109
Jan 4at PHXPHX 108 − 105
Dec 10, 2025at OKCOKC 138 − 89
Nov 28, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at PHXOKC 125 − 112
Feb 5, 2025at OKCOKC 140 − 109

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Apr 25at PHX121 − 109W
Apr 22vs PHX120 − 107W
Apr 19vs PHX119 − 84W
Apr 12vs PHX103 − 135L
Apr 10at DEN107 − 127L
Apr 8at LAC128 − 110W
Apr 7at LAL123 − 87W
Apr 5vs UTAH146 − 111W
Apr 2vs LAL139 − 96W
Mar 30vs DET114 − 110W

PHX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Apr 25vs OKC109 − 121L
Apr 22at OKC107 − 120L
Apr 19at OKC84 − 119L
Apr 12at OKC135 − 103W
Apr 10at LAL73 − 101L
Apr 8vs DAL112 − 107W
Apr 7vs HOU105 − 119L
Apr 5at CHI120 − 110W
Apr 2at CHA107 − 127L
Mar 31at ORL111 − 115L