bayesRatings

Thunder at Suns

NBA · Wednesday, Feb 11 · 8:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final OKC 136 – PHX 109
← NBA / Feb 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC37383724136
PHX25272829109
Team box
OKC·PHX
52-89
field goals
43-92
15-36
3-pointers
15-42
17-19
free throws
8-13
37
rebounds
43
28
assists
26
8
turnovers
12
60
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen WilliamsOKC202845
Dillon BrooksPHX242354
Isaiah JoeOKC182111
Kenrich WilliamsOKC231562
Chet HolmgrenOKC211342
Jordan GoodwinPHX281244

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +37
OKC +37
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 3 · OKC 37lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 70%, PHX 30% · Updated Feb 11

Expected margin
OKC by 8.0
Expected score
OKC 116.7 – 108.7 PHX
Expected total
225.3
ThunderThe matchupSuns
−228Our fair odds+228
116.7Expected points108.7
+1.17Power rating+0.12
119.9Points / game113.7
108.0Allowed / game111.4
48.9FG%46.1
36.23P%36.2
43.7Rebounds / game43.1
41−13Season record32−22
5−5Last 105−5
Ajay Mitchell · Brooks Barnhizer
Nikola Topic · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Thomas SorberOutCole Anthony · Grayson Allen
Isaiah Livers

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · PHX chance
Our model fair69.5%30.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−22870%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+22830%————
SpreadOKC by 8.0
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+8our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.3
Over225.3our total————
Under225.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.0 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byPHX wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more63%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more46%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more31%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

225.3 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.569%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.530%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Phoenix Suns
GJordan Goodwinstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·PHX
Feb 9 at LAL
last game
Feb 10 vs DAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Feb 11, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAjay Mitchell · abdominal; strainOut
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCNikola Topic · g league - on assignmentOut
OKCShai Gilgeous-Alexander · abdominal; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Phoenix Suns
PHXCole Anthony · not with teamOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; sprainOut
PHXIsaiah Livers · left shoulder; sprainOut
PHXDevin Booker · right ankle; injury managementQuestionable
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 54+ games
OKC·PHX
+1.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
119.9
points / game
113.7
108.0
points allowed / game
111.4
41−13
season record
32−22
22−6
home record
18−9
19−7
away record
14−13
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
48.9
FG%
46.1
36.2
3P%
36.2
43.7
rebounds / game
43.1
25.5
assists / game
25.0
12.5
turnovers / game
15.0
50.8
points in paint / game
44.3

Rating Trend

OKC · PHX · 105 days
Oklahoma City ThunderPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 2−8
Jan 4at PHXPHX 108 − 105
Dec 10, 2025at OKCOKC 138 − 89
Nov 28, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at PHXOKC 125 − 112
Feb 5, 2025at OKCOKC 140 − 109
Nov 15, 2024at OKCOKC 99 − 83
Mar 29, 2024at OKCOKC 128 − 103
Mar 3, 2024at PHXOKC 118 − 110
Nov 12, 2023at PHXOKC 111 − 99
Apr 2, 2023at OKCPHX 128 − 118

OKC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 9at LAL119 − 110W
Feb 7vs HOU106 − 112L
Feb 4at SA106 − 116L
Feb 3vs ORL128 − 92W
Feb 1at DEN121 − 111W
Jan 29at MIN111 − 123L
Jan 27vs NO104 − 95W
Jan 25vs TOR101 − 103L
Jan 23vs IND114 − 117L
Jan 21at MIL122 − 102W

PHX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Feb 10vs DAL120 − 111W
Feb 7vs PHI103 − 109L
Feb 5vs GS97 − 101L
Feb 3at POR130 − 125W
Feb 1vs LAC93 − 117L
Jan 30vs CLE126 − 113W
Jan 29vs DET114 − 96W
Jan 27vs BKN106 − 102W
Jan 25vs MIA102 − 111L
Jan 23at ATL103 − 110L