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Thunder at Suns

NBA · Sunday, Jan 4 · 7:00 PM CT · Mortgage Matchup Center · Final OKC 105 – PHX 108
← NBA / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC26232432105
PHX20223234108
Team box
OKC·PHX
39-82
field goals
35-79
10-32
3-pointers
17-43
17-19
free throws
21-29
29
rebounds
49
20
assists
21
9
turnovers
16
38
points in paint
24
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jordan GoodwinPHX312640
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC362506
Devin BookerPHX382469
Jalen WilliamsOKC342347
Dillon BrooksPHX342242
Chet HolmgrenOKC331891

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHX +18
OKC +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHX 4 · OKC 18lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 73%, PHX 27% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
OKC by 8.6
Expected score
OKC 118.2 – 109.7 PHX
Expected total
227.9
ThunderThe matchupSuns
−277Our fair odds+277
118.2Expected points109.7
+1.34Power rating+0.08
122.4Points / game115.5
107.1Allowed / game113.4
49.7FG%46.8
37.13P%36.2
44.6Rebounds / game43.2
30−5Season record20−14
6−4Last 106−4
Isaiah Hartenstein · Jaylin Williams
Nikola Topic · Ousmane Dieng
Thomas SorberOutJalen Green

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · PHX chance
Our model fair73.5%26.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−27773%————
PHXPhoenix Suns+27727%————
SpreadOKC by 8.6
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−8.6our margin————
PHXPhoenix Suns+8.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 227.9
Over227.9our total————
Under227.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 8.6 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 1 point: 2%Phoenix Suns by 2 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 3 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 4 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 5 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 6 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 7 points: 2%Phoenix Suns by 8 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 9 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 10 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 11 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 12 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 13 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 14 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 15 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 16 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 17 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 18 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 19 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 20 points: 1%Phoenix Suns by 21 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 22 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 23 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 24 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 25 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 26 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 27 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 28 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 29 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 30 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 31 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 32 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 33 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 34 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 35 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 36 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 37 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 38 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 39 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 40 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 41 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 42 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 43 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 44 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 45 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 46 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 47 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 48 points: <1%Phoenix Suns by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byPHX wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more48%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

227.9 expected
178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 217.570%
Total over 227.550%
Total over 237.531%
Total from 218 to 23739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Phoenix Suns
GDevin Bookerstarted
GCollin Gillespiestarted
FRoyce O'Nealestarted
FDillon Brooksstarted
CMark Williamsstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·PHX
Jan 2 at GS
last game
Jan 2 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 4, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
OKCCason Wallace · right knee; sorenessQuestionable
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
Phoenix Suns
PHXJalen Green · right hamstring; strainOut
PHXGrayson Allen · right knee; injury managementQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
OKC·PHX
+1.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
122.4
points / game
115.5
107.1
points allowed / game
113.4
30−5
season record
20−14
17−2
home record
11−5
13−3
away record
9−9
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
49.7
FG%
46.8
37.1
3P%
36.2
44.6
rebounds / game
43.2
26.2
assists / game
25.4
12.7
turnovers / game
15.6
53.1
points in paint / game
46.4

Rating Trend

OKC · PHX · 67 days
Oklahoma City ThunderPhoenix Suns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHX 1−9
Dec 10, 2025at OKCOKC 138 − 89
Nov 28, 2025at OKCOKC 123 − 119
Apr 9, 2025at PHXOKC 125 − 112
Feb 5, 2025at OKCOKC 140 − 109
Nov 15, 2024at OKCOKC 99 − 83
Mar 29, 2024at OKCOKC 128 − 103
Mar 3, 2024at PHXOKC 118 − 110
Nov 12, 2023at PHXOKC 111 − 99
Apr 2, 2023at OKCPHX 128 − 118
Mar 19, 2023at OKCOKC 124 − 120

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jan 2at GS131 − 94W
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L

PHX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jan 2vs SAC129 − 102W
Dec 31, 2025at CLE113 − 129L
Dec 29, 2025at WSH115 − 101W
Dec 27, 2025at NO123 − 114W
Dec 26, 2025at NO115 − 108W
Dec 23, 2025vs LAL132 − 108W
Dec 20, 2025at GS116 − 119L
Dec 18, 2025vs GS99 − 98W
Dec 14, 2025vs LAL114 − 116L
Dec 10, 2025at OKC89 − 138L