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Thunder at Warriors

NBA · Friday, Jan 2 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final OKC 131 – GS 94
← NBA / Jan 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC34303136131
GS2322212894
Team box
OKC·GS
48-92
field goals
32-90
16-38
3-pointers
13-44
19-19
free throws
17-23
51
rebounds
43
34
assists
23
14
turnovers
17
56
points in paint
28
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC283017
Chet HolmgrenOKC2615154
Branden CarlsonOKC2215112
Aaron WigginsOKC271532
Al HorfordGS161360
Will RichardGS271351

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +41
OKC +41
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 1 · OKC 41lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 69%, GS 31% · Updated Jan 2

Expected margin
OKC by 6.1
Expected score
OKC 115.1 – 109.0 GS
Expected total
224.1
ThunderThe matchupWarriors
−226Our fair odds+226
115.1Expected points109.0
+1.34Power rating+0.28
122.1Points / game115.6
107.5Allowed / game113.4
49.6FG%45.7
36.93P%36.3
44.4Rebounds / game43.6
29−5Season record18−16
6−4Last 106−4
Brooks Barnhizer · Isaiah Hartenstein
Jaylin Williams · Nikola Topic
Ousmane DiengOut (5 each)De'Anthony Melton · Draymond Green
Jimmy Butler III · LJ Cryer
Malevy Leons

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · GS chance
Our model fair69.3%30.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−22669%————
GSGolden State Warriors+22631%————
SpreadOKC by 6.1
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−6.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors+6.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 224.1
Over224.1our total————
Under224.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 6.1 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%
← OKC wins byGS wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more57%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more41%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

224.1 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 214.568%
Total over 224.549%
Total over 234.529%
Total from 215 to 23439%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GJalen Williamsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Golden State Warriors
GMoses Moodystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
GWill Richardstarted
FGui Santosstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·GS
Dec 31, 2025 vs POR
last game
Dec 31, 2025 at CHA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Jan 2, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCBrooks Barnhizer · g league - two-wayOut
OKCIsaiah Hartenstein · right soleus; strainOut
OKCJaylin Williams · right heel; bursitisOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCOusmane Dieng · right calf; strainOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left knee; injury managementOut
GSDraymond Green · restOut
GSJimmy Butler III · general; illnessOut
GSLJ Cryer · g league - two-wayOut
GSMalevy Leons · g league - two-wayOut
GSSeth Curry · left sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSStephen Curry · left ankle; sprainOut
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
OKC·GS
+1.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.28
122.1
points / game
115.6
107.5
points allowed / game
113.4
29−5
season record
18−16
17−2
home record
10−4
12−3
away record
8−12
W3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
49.6
FG%
45.7
36.9
3P%
36.3
44.4
rebounds / game
43.6
25.9
assists / game
28.1
12.7
turnovers / game
16.2
53.1
points in paint / game
42.5

Rating Trend

OKC · GS · 65 days
Oklahoma City ThunderGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 4−6
Dec 2, 2025at GSOKC 124 − 112
Nov 11, 2025at OKCOKC 126 − 102
Jan 29, 2025at GSGS 116 − 109
Nov 27, 2024at GSOKC 105 − 101
Nov 10, 2024at OKCGS 127 − 116
Dec 8, 2023at OKCOKC 138 − 136
Nov 18, 2023at GSOKC 130 − 123
Nov 16, 2023at GSOKC 128 − 109
Nov 3, 2023at OKCGS 141 − 139
Apr 4, 2023at GSGS 136 − 125

OKC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Dec 31, 2025vs POR124 − 95W
Dec 29, 2025vs ATL140 − 129W
Dec 28, 2025vs PHI129 − 104W
Dec 25, 2025vs SA102 − 117L
Dec 23, 2025at SA110 − 130L
Dec 22, 2025vs MEM119 − 103W
Dec 19, 2025at MIN107 − 112L
Dec 18, 2025vs LAC122 − 101W
Dec 13, 2025vs SA109 − 111L
Dec 10, 2025vs PHX138 − 89W

GS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 31, 2025at CHA132 − 125W
Dec 29, 2025at BKN120 − 107W
Dec 28, 2025at TOR127 − 141L
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL126 − 116W
Dec 22, 2025vs ORL120 − 97W
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W