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Magic at Warriors

NBA · Monday, Dec 22 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final ORL 97 – GS 120
← NBA / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ORL3027261497
GS26323131120
Team box
ORL·GS
36-87
field goals
46-89
7-27
3-pointers
11-37
18-26
free throws
17-24
48
rebounds
47
21
assists
33
18
turnovers
13
50
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS312636
Paolo BancheroORL3421127
Jimmy Butler IIIGS302134
Desmond BaneORL332043
Moses MoodyGS322033
Anthony BlackORL311963

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +24
ORL +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 24 · ORL 7lead changes: 14

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ORL 42%, GS 58% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 3.3
Expected score
GS 109.7 – 106.3 ORL
Expected total
216.0
MagicThe matchupWarriors
+141Our fair odds−141
106.3Expected points109.7
+0.15Power rating+0.27
118.1Points / game114.0
115.0Allowed / game112.8
47.1FG%45.0
33.73P%36.6
45.1Rebounds / game43.7
16−12Season record14−15
6−4Last 104−6
Colin Castleton · Franz Wagner
Moritz WagnerOutAl Horford · Seth Curry

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ORL chance · GS chance
Our model fair41.6%58.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ORLOrlando Magic+14142%————
GSGolden State Warriors−14158%————
SpreadGS by 3.3
ORLOrlando Magic+3.3our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−3.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 216.0
Over216.0our total————
Under216.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 3.3 expected
Orlando Magic by 45 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 44 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 43 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 42 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 41 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 40 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 39 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 38 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 37 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 36 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 35 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 34 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 33 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 32 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 31 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 30 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 29 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 28 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 27 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 26 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 25 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 24 points: <1%Orlando Magic by 23 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 22 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 21 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 20 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 19 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 18 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 17 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 16 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 15 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 14 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 13 points: 1%Orlando Magic by 12 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 11 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 10 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 9 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 8 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 7 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 6 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 5 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 4 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 3 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 2 points: 2%Orlando Magic by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%
← ORL wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more49%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more34%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more22%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

216.0 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 206.569%
Total over 216.548%
Total over 226.529%
Total from 207 to 22639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Orlando Magic
GTyus Jonesstarted
GDesmond Banestarted
GAnthony Blackstarted
FPaolo Bancherostarted
CWendell Carter Jr.started
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ORL·GS
Dec 20, 2025 at UTAH
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs PHX
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Dec 22, 5:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic
ORLColin Castleton · g league - two-wayOut
ORLFranz Wagner · left high ankle; sprainOut
ORLMoritz Wagner · left knee; injury recoveryOut
ORLJalen Suggs · left hip; contusionDoubtful
ORLTristan da Silva · right shoulder; contusionQuestionable
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSSeth Curry · left glute; injury managementOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
ORL·GS
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
118.1
points / game
114.0
115.0
points allowed / game
112.8
16−12
season record
14−15
10−5
home record
8−4
6−7
away record
6−11
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
47.1
FG%
45.0
33.7
3P%
36.6
45.1
rebounds / game
43.7
26.1
assists / game
27.7
14.3
turnovers / game
16.3
55.0
points in paint / game
41.3

Rating Trend

ORL · GS · 55 days
Orlando MagicGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · GS 5−4
Nov 18, 2025at ORLORL 121 − 113
Feb 27, 2025at ORLGS 121 − 115
Feb 3, 2025at GSGS 104 − 99
Mar 27, 2024at ORLGS 101 − 93
Jan 2, 2024at GSGS 121 − 115
Jan 7, 2023at GSORL 115 − 101
Nov 3, 2022at ORLORL 130 − 129
Mar 22, 2022at ORLORL 94 − 90
Dec 6, 2021at GSGS 126 − 95

ORL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025at UTAH128 − 127W
Dec 18, 2025at DEN115 − 126L
Dec 13, 2025vs NY120 − 132L
Dec 9, 2025vs MIA117 − 108W
Dec 7, 2025at NY100 − 106L
Dec 5, 2025vs MIA106 − 105W
Dec 3, 2025vs SA112 − 114L
Dec 1, 2025vs CHI125 − 120W
Nov 28, 2025at DET112 − 109W
Nov 25, 2025at PHI144 − 103W

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025vs PHX119 − 116W
Dec 18, 2025at PHX98 − 99L
Dec 14, 2025at POR131 − 136L
Dec 12, 2025vs MIN120 − 127L
Dec 7, 2025at CHI123 − 91W
Dec 6, 2025at CLE99 − 94W
Dec 4, 2025at PHI98 − 99L
Dec 2, 2025vs OKC112 − 124L
Nov 29, 2025vs NO104 − 96W
Nov 26, 2025vs HOU100 − 104L