bayesRatings

Rockets at Warriors

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final HOU 104 – GS 100
← NBA / Nov 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU22252730104
GS25341724100
Team box
HOU·GS
39-99
field goals
35-82
11-39
3-pointers
12-43
15-24
free throws
18-21
53
rebounds
47
24
assists
25
10
turnovers
16
42
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Reed SheppardHOU373195
Jimmy Butler IIIGS332155
Will RichardGS281860
Alperen SengunHOU351666
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU371542
Stephen CurryGS331465

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +14
HOU +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 14 · HOU 8lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 52%, GS 48% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 0.1
Expected score
GS 111.7 – 111.6 HOU
Expected total
223.3
RocketsThe matchupWarriors
−108Our fair odds+108
111.6Expected points111.7
+0.64Power rating+0.31
122.3Points / game115.8
111.1Allowed / game115.0
48.7FG%45.5
42.33P%36.9
49.1Rebounds / game42.6
11−4Season record10−9
8−2Last 105−5
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Kevin Durant · Kevon Harris
Steven AdamsOutAl Horford · De'Anthony Melton
Jonathan Kuminga

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · GS chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−10852%————
GSGolden State Warriors+10848%————
SpreadGS by 0.1
HOUHouston Rockets+0.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.3
Over223.3our total————
Under223.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 0.1 expected
Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%
← HOU wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more41%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more27%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more16%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

223.3 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.549%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
GReed Sheppardstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·GS
Nov 24, 2025 at PHX
last game
Nov 24, 2025 vs UTAH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 26, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUKevin Durant · personal reasonsOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · right ankle; tendinopathyOut
HOUTari Eason · right oblique; strainOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · right sciatic nerve; irritationOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · tendonitis left acl; surgeryOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellarOut
GSDraymond Green · right midfoot; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
HOU·GS
+0.64
rating (0 = average)
+0.31
122.3
points / game
115.8
111.1
points allowed / game
115.0
11−4
season record
10−9
5−2
home record
6−1
6−2
away record
4−8
W1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
5−5
48.7
FG%
45.5
42.3
3P%
36.9
49.1
rebounds / game
42.6
25.3
assists / game
27.5
15.7
turnovers / game
16.6
53.2
points in paint / game
41.1

Rating Trend

HOU · GS · 30 days
Houston RocketsGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 5−5
May 4, 2025at HOUGS 103 − 89post
May 2, 2025at GSHOU 115 − 107post
Apr 30, 2025at HOUHOU 131 − 116post
Apr 28, 2025at GSGS 109 − 106post
Apr 26, 2025at GSGS 104 − 93post
Apr 23, 2025at HOUHOU 109 − 94post
Apr 20, 2025at HOUGS 95 − 85post
Apr 6, 2025at GSHOU 106 − 96
Feb 13, 2025at HOUGS 105 − 98
Dec 11, 2024at HOUHOU 91 − 90

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Nov 24, 2025at PHX114 − 92W
Nov 21, 2025vs DEN109 − 112L
Nov 19, 2025at CLE114 − 104W
Nov 16, 2025vs ORL117 − 113W
Nov 14, 2025vs POR140 − 116W
Nov 12, 2025vs WSH135 − 112W
Nov 9, 2025at MIL122 − 115W
Nov 7, 2025at SA110 − 121L
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 24, 2025vs UTAH134 − 117W
Nov 21, 2025vs POR123 − 127L
Nov 19, 2025at MIA96 − 110L
Nov 18, 2025at ORL113 − 121L
Nov 16, 2025at NO124 − 106W
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L