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Warriors at Pelicans

NBA · Sunday, Nov 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Smoothie King Center · Final GS 124 – NO 106
← NBA / Nov 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS44172439124
NO28212235106
Team box
GS·NO
43-94
field goals
38-83
24-56
3-pointers
8-29
14-17
free throws
22-29
47
rebounds
45
34
assists
22
21
turnovers
21
36
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Moses MoodyGS333240
Trey Murphy IIINO312082
Brandin PodziemskiGS261933
Jimmy Butler IIIGS3118310
Jose AlvaradoNO251813
Jeremiah FearsNO251751

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +25
GS +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 4 · GS 25lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 71%, NO 29% · Updated Nov 16, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 8.5
Expected score
GS 116.8 – 108.2 NO
Expected total
225.0
WarriorsThe matchupPelicans
−241Our fair odds+241
116.8Expected points108.2
+0.37Power rating−0.79
115.1Points / game108.4
114.6Allowed / game121.3
45.4FG%43.6
37.13P%34.8
41.6Rebounds / game41.3
8−6Season record2−10
5−5Last 102−8
De'Anthony Melton · Jonathan KumingaOutDejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Jordan Poole · Trey Alexander

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · NO chance
Our model fair70.7%29.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−24171%————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+24129%————
SpreadGS by 8.5
GSGolden State Warriors−8.5our margin————
NONew Orleans Pelicans+8.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.0
Over225.0our total————
Under225.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 8.5 expected
Golden State Warriors by 49 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 48 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 47 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%
← GS wins byNO wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more64%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more48%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.0 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.568%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.529%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GMoses Moodystarted
GWill Richardstarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CDerik Queenstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·NO
Nov 14, 2025 at SA
last game
Nov 14, 2025 vs LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 15, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · bilateral knee; patellar tendonitisOut
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; strainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
GS·NO
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.79
115.1
points / game
108.4
114.6
points allowed / game
121.3
8−6
season record
2−10
5−0
home record
1−4
3−6
away record
1−6
W2
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
2−8
45.4
FG%
43.6
37.1
3P%
34.8
41.6
rebounds / game
41.3
26.9
assists / game
22.8
16.4
turnovers / game
15.1
40.0
points in paint / game
49.8

Rating Trend

GS · NO · 20 days
Golden State WarriorsNew Orleans Pelicans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NO 3−7
Mar 28, 2025at NOGS 111 − 95
Nov 22, 2024at NOGS 112 − 108
Oct 30, 2024at GSGS 104 − 89
Oct 29, 2024at GSGS 124 − 106
Apr 12, 2024at GSNO 114 − 109
Jan 10, 2024at GSNO 141 − 105
Oct 30, 2023at NOGS 130 − 102
Mar 28, 2023at GSGS 120 − 109
Mar 3, 2023at GSGS 108 − 99
Nov 21, 2022at NONO 128 − 83

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Nov 14, 2025at SA109 − 108W
Nov 12, 2025at SA125 − 120W
Nov 11, 2025at OKC102 − 126L
Nov 9, 2025vs IND114 − 83W
Nov 7, 2025at DEN104 − 129L
Nov 5, 2025at SAC116 − 121L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHX118 − 107W
Nov 1, 2025at IND109 − 114L
Oct 30, 2025at MIL110 − 120L
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Nov 14, 2025vs LAL104 − 118L
Nov 12, 2025vs POR117 − 125L
Nov 10, 2025at PHX98 − 121L
Nov 8, 2025at SA119 − 126L
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at OKC106 − 137L
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L
Oct 29, 2025at DEN88 − 122L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS90 − 122L