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Warriors at Bucks

NBA · Thursday, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CT · Fiserv Forum · Final GS 110 – MIL 120
← NBA / Oct 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS25332626110
MIL34262733120
Team box
GS·MIL
36-85
field goals
46-96
13-38
3-pointers
19-46
25-26
free throws
9-13
44
rebounds
34
23
assists
25
22
turnovers
16
44
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Ryan RollinsMIL363238
Stephen CurryGS352764
Jonathan KumingaGS342484
Jimmy Butler IIIGS3723103
Myles TurnerMIL291773
Cole AnthonyMIL211632

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +12
GS +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIL 12 · GS 5lead changes: 16

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 47%, MIL 53% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
MIL by 1.8
Expected score
MIL 115.3 – 113.5 GS
Expected total
228.8
WarriorsThe matchupBucks
+114Our fair odds−114
113.5Expected points115.3
+0.37Power rating+0.27
120.8Points / game122.2
115.2Allowed / game116.2
48.4FG%52.0
41.03P%39.0
41.0Rebounds / game43.0
4−1Season record3−1
5−5Last 105−5
Alex Toohey · De'Anthony MeltonOutKevin Porter Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · MIL chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors+11447%————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−11453%————
SpreadMIL by 1.8
GSGolden State Warriors+1.8our margin————
MILMilwaukee Bucks−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.8
Over228.8our total————
Under228.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Bucks by 1.8 expected
Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 3%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%
← GS wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 5 or more45%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 10 or more31%
Milwaukee Bucks wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.8 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.570%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FKyle Kuzmastarted
CMyles Turnerstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·MIL
Oct 28, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Oct 28, 2025 vs NY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 29, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury recoveryOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
Milwaukee Bucks
MILKevin Porter Jr. · left ankle; sprainOut
MILGiannis Antetokounmpo · left knee; sorenessProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
GS·MIL
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
120.8
points / game
122.2
115.2
points allowed / game
116.2
4−1
season record
3−1
3−0
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
1−1
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
48.4
FG%
52.0
41.0
3P%
39.0
41.0
rebounds / game
43.0
29.2
assists / game
27.0
16.4
turnovers / game
14.5
42.8
points in paint / game
53.0

Rating Trend

GS · MIL · 3 days
Golden State WarriorsMilwaukee Bucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · MIL 3−5
Mar 18, 2025at GSGS 104 − 93
Feb 10, 2025at MILGS 125 − 111
Mar 6, 2024at GSGS 125 − 90
Jan 13, 2024at MILMIL 129 − 118
Mar 11, 2023at GSGS 125 − 116
Dec 13, 2022at MILMIL 128 − 111
Mar 12, 2022at GSGS 122 − 109
Jan 13, 2022at MILMIL 118 − 99

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 28, 2025vs LAC98 − 79W
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L
May 8, 2025at MIN93 − 117L
May 6, 2025at MIN99 − 88W

MIL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 28, 2025vs NY121 − 111W
Oct 26, 2025at CLE113 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L
Apr 25, 2025vs IND117 − 101W
Apr 22, 2025at IND115 − 123L
Apr 19, 2025at IND98 − 117L
Apr 13, 2025vs DET140 − 133W