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Grizzlies at Warriors

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 9:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final MEM 118 – GS 131
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MEM37242433118
GS36293630131
Team box
MEM·GS
40-88
field goals
44-83
12-39
3-pointers
19-43
26-28
free throws
24-30
39
rebounds
39
32
assists
36
13
turnovers
16
48
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jonathan KumingaGS3225104
Ja MorantMEM312339
Brandin PodziemskiGS322346
Jimmy Butler IIIGS312055
Moses MoodyGS222021
Jock LandaleMEM241763

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +22
MEM +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 22 · MEM 6lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MEM 39%, GS 61% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 4.3
Expected score
GS 117.3 – 113.0 MEM
Expected total
230.3
GrizzliesThe matchupWarriors
+159Our fair odds−159
113.0Expected points117.3
+0.14Power rating+0.37
123.3Points / game125.0
123.7Allowed / game126.3
45.3FG%48.0
32.33P%41.0
43.0Rebounds / game41.3
2−1Season record2−1
3−7Last 104−6
Brandon Clarke · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome · Vince Williams Jr.
Zach EdeyOutAl Horford · Alex Toohey
De'Anthony Melton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MEM chance · GS chance
Our model fair38.6%61.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+15939%————
GSGolden State Warriors−15961%————
SpreadGS by 4.3
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+4.3our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.3
Over230.3our total————
Under230.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 4.3 expected
Memphis Grizzlies by 46 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 45 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 46 points: <1%
← MEM wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more52%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more37%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more24%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.3 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.568%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.529%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
GBrandin Podziemskistarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MEM·GS
Oct 25, 2025 vs IND
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at POR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMVince Williams Jr. · right ankle; impingementOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury recoveryOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
MEM·GS
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
123.3
points / game
125.0
123.7
points allowed / game
126.3
2−1
season record
2−1
2−1
home record
1−0
0−0
away record
1−1
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
45.3
FG%
48.0
32.3
3P%
41.0
43.0
rebounds / game
41.3
26.7
assists / game
28.7
14.3
turnovers / game
17.7
52.0
points in paint / game
41.3

Rating Trend

MEM · GS · 7 days
Memphis GrizzliesGolden State Warriors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 6−4
Apr 1, 2025at MEMGS 134 − 125
Jan 4, 2025at GSGS 121 − 113
Dec 19, 2024at MEMMEM 144 − 93
Nov 15, 2024at GSGS 123 − 118
Mar 20, 2024at GSGS 137 − 116
Feb 2, 2024at MEMGS 121 − 101
Jan 15, 2024at MEMMEM 116 − 107
Mar 18, 2023at MEMMEM 133 − 119
Mar 9, 2023at MEMMEM 131 − 110
Jan 25, 2023at GSGS 122 − 120

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 25, 2025vs IND128 − 103W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIA114 − 146L
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L
Apr 24, 2025vs OKC108 − 114L
Apr 22, 2025at OKC99 − 118L
Apr 20, 2025at OKC80 − 131L
Apr 13, 2025vs DAL132 − 97W
Apr 11, 2025at DEN109 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs MIN125 − 141L

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L
May 8, 2025at MIN93 − 117L
May 6, 2025at MIN99 − 88W
May 4, 2025at HOU103 − 89W
May 2, 2025vs HOU107 − 115L