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Clippers at Warriors

NBA · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 10:00 PM CT · Chase Center · Final LAC 79 – GS 98
← NBA / Oct 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAC2524141679
GS3313322098
Team box
LAC·GS
30-82
field goals
39-86
6-33
3-pointers
17-45
13-16
free throws
3-4
47
rebounds
42
10
assists
24
16
turnovers
13
42
points in paint
42
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jimmy Butler IIIGS322155
James HardenLAC322041
Stephen CurryGS261928
Kawhi LeonardLAC311861
Ivica ZubacLAC2414121
Brandin PodziemskiGS271254

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GS +24
LAC +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GS 24 · LAC 5lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAC 46%, GS 54% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 2.1
Expected score
GS 111.4 – 109.3 LAC
Expected total
220.7
ClippersThe matchupWarriors
+116Our fair odds−116
109.3Expected points111.4
+0.45Power rating+0.37
117.0Points / game126.5
112.7Allowed / game124.2
52.7FG%49.2
41.73P%41.8
43.0Rebounds / game40.8
2−1Season record3−1
5−5Last 105−5
Bradley Beal · Jordan Miller
Kobe SandersOutAlex Toohey · De'Anthony Melton

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAC chance · GS chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LACLA Clippers+11646%————
GSGolden State Warriors−11654%————
SpreadGS by 2.1
LACLA Clippers+2.1our margin————
GSGolden State Warriors−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.7
Over220.7our total————
Under220.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 2.1 expected
LA Clippers by 43 points: <1%LA Clippers by 42 points: <1%LA Clippers by 41 points: <1%LA Clippers by 40 points: <1%LA Clippers by 39 points: <1%LA Clippers by 38 points: <1%LA Clippers by 37 points: <1%LA Clippers by 36 points: <1%LA Clippers by 35 points: <1%LA Clippers by 34 points: <1%LA Clippers by 33 points: <1%LA Clippers by 32 points: <1%LA Clippers by 31 points: <1%LA Clippers by 30 points: <1%LA Clippers by 29 points: <1%LA Clippers by 28 points: <1%LA Clippers by 27 points: <1%LA Clippers by 26 points: <1%LA Clippers by 25 points: 1%LA Clippers by 24 points: 1%LA Clippers by 23 points: 1%LA Clippers by 22 points: 1%LA Clippers by 21 points: 1%LA Clippers by 20 points: 1%LA Clippers by 19 points: 1%LA Clippers by 18 points: 1%LA Clippers by 17 points: 1%LA Clippers by 16 points: 1%LA Clippers by 15 points: 1%LA Clippers by 14 points: 1%LA Clippers by 13 points: 2%LA Clippers by 12 points: 2%LA Clippers by 11 points: 2%LA Clippers by 10 points: 2%LA Clippers by 9 points: 2%LA Clippers by 8 points: 2%LA Clippers by 7 points: 2%LA Clippers by 6 points: 3%LA Clippers by 5 points: 3%LA Clippers by 4 points: 2%LA Clippers by 3 points: 2%LA Clippers by 2 points: 2%LA Clippers by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%
← LAC wins byGS wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more46%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more32%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.7 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.570%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
LA Clippers
GJames Hardenstarted
GBogdan Bogdanovicstarted
FKawhi Leonardstarted
FDerrick Jones Jr.started
CIvica Zubacstarted
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAC·GS
Oct 26, 2025 vs POR
last game
Oct 27, 2025 vs MEM
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 5:00 PM ET
LA Clippers
LACBradley Beal · back; sorenessOut
LACJordan Miller · left hamstring; strainOut
LACKobe Sanders · right knee; sprainOut
Golden State Warriors
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; injury recoveryOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
LAC·GS
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.37
117.0
points / game
126.5
112.7
points allowed / game
124.2
2−1
season record
3−1
2−0
home record
2−0
0−1
away record
1−1
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
52.7
FG%
49.2
41.7
3P%
41.8
43.0
rebounds / game
40.8
28.7
assists / game
30.5
19.3
turnovers / game
17.2
53.3
points in paint / game
43.0

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · GS 2−8
Apr 13, 2025at GSLAC 124 − 119
Dec 27, 2024at LACLAC 102 − 92
Nov 18, 2024at LACLAC 102 − 99
Oct 27, 2024at GSLAC 112 − 104
Feb 14, 2024at GSLAC 130 − 125
Dec 14, 2023at LACLAC 121 − 113
Dec 2, 2023at LACLAC 113 − 112
Nov 30, 2023at GSGS 120 − 114
Mar 15, 2023at LACLAC 134 − 126
Mar 2, 2023at GSGS 115 − 91

LAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 26, 2025vs POR114 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025vs PHX129 − 102W
Oct 22, 2025at UTAH108 − 129L
May 3, 2025at DEN101 − 120L
May 1, 2025vs DEN111 − 105W
Apr 29, 2025at DEN115 − 131L
Apr 26, 2025vs DEN99 − 101L
Apr 24, 2025vs DEN117 − 83W
Apr 21, 2025at DEN105 − 102W
Apr 19, 2025at DEN110 − 112L

GS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 27, 2025vs MEM131 − 118W
Oct 24, 2025at POR119 − 139L
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L
May 8, 2025at MIN93 − 117L
May 6, 2025at MIN99 − 88W
May 4, 2025at HOU103 − 89W