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Pelicans at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final NO 101 – DAL 99
← NBA / Nov 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO29232623101
DAL1930282299
Team box
NO·DAL
39-91
field goals
37-89
10-31
3-pointers
10-32
13-16
free throws
15-20
56
rebounds
44
18
assists
18
16
turnovers
15
52
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Saddiq BeyNO302291
Cooper FlaggDAL352092
P.J. WashingtonDAL3815111
Daniel GaffordDAL251580
Jose AlvaradoNO231382
Jeremiah FearsNO251353

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +13
NO +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 5 · NO 13lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 29%, DAL 71% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 6.9
Expected score
DAL 118.0 – 111.1 NO
Expected total
229.1
PelicansThe matchupMavericks
+247Our fair odds−247
111.1Expected points118.0
−0.81Power rating−0.11
108.9Points / game107.3
123.9Allowed / game115.6
42.9FG%44.4
35.43P%31.9
40.4Rebounds / game42.9
1−6Season record2−5
1−9Last 103−7
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey Alexander · Yves Missi
Zion WilliamsonOutAnthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · DAL chance
Our model fair28.8%71.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+24729%————
DALDallas Mavericks−24771%————
SpreadDAL by 6.9
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.9our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−6.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.1
Over229.1our total————
Under229.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 6.9 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%
← NO wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more59%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more43%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.548%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FKevon Looneystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GD'Angelo Russellstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·DAL
Nov 4, 2025 vs CHA
last game
Nov 3, 2025 at HOU
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOYves Missi · n/a; illnessOut
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; strainOut
NOJordan Poole · left knee; sorenessQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · left calf; strainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; sprainOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
NO·DAL
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
108.9
points / game
107.3
123.9
points allowed / game
115.6
1−6
season record
2−5
1−2
home record
2−3
0−4
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L2
1−9
last 10
3−7
42.9
FG%
44.4
35.4
3P%
31.9
40.4
rebounds / game
42.9
22.7
assists / game
24.1
14.7
turnovers / game
16.4
48.0
points in paint / game
45.4

Rating Trend

NO · DAL · 9 days
New Orleans PelicansDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 6−4
Feb 21, 2025at DALDAL 111 − 103
Jan 29, 2025at NODAL 137 − 136
Jan 15, 2025at NONO 119 − 116
Nov 19, 2024at DALDAL 132 − 91
Jan 15, 2024at DALDAL 125 − 120
Jan 13, 2024at DALNO 118 − 108
Nov 14, 2023at NONO 131 − 110
Nov 12, 2023at NODAL 136 − 124
Mar 8, 2023at NONO 113 − 106
Feb 2, 2023at DALDAL 111 − 106

NO · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at OKC106 − 137L
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L
Oct 29, 2025at DEN88 − 122L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS90 − 122L
Oct 24, 2025vs SA116 − 120L
Oct 22, 2025at MEM122 − 128L
Apr 13, 2025vs OKC100 − 115L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIA104 − 153L
Apr 10, 2025at MIL111 − 136L

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 3, 2025at HOU102 − 110L
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W
Apr 9, 2025vs LAL97 − 112L