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Pacers at Mavericks

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 29 · 7:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final IND 105 – DAL 107
← NBA / Oct 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND30251931105
DAL25272926107
Team box
IND·DAL
37-106
field goals
36-79
13-45
3-pointers
5-24
18-28
free throws
30-37
52
rebounds
47
20
assists
21
14
turnovers
19
42
points in paint
56
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Pascal SiakamIND3727133
Jarace WalkerIND362065
Brandon WilliamsDAL222072
Dwight PowellDAL291860
RayJ DennisIND301755
Cooper FlaggDAL3515104

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +14
IND +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 12 · IND 14lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 58%, DAL 42% · Updated Oct 29, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 2.8
Expected score
IND 118.2 – 115.3 DAL
Expected total
233.5
PacersThe matchupMavericks
−136Our fair odds+136
118.2Expected points115.3
+0.45Power rating−0.10
116.0Points / game108.0
127.7Allowed / game118.0
42.3FG%44.2
33.33P%35.2
49.3Rebounds / game42.5
0−3Season record1−3
3−7Last 103−7
Andrew Nembhard · Bennedict Mathurin
Johnny Furphy · Kam Jones
Obi ToppinOutDante Exum · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · DAL chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndiana Pacers−13658%————
DALDallas Mavericks+13642%————
SpreadIND by 2.8
INDIndiana Pacers−2.8our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks+2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.5
Over233.5our total————
Under233.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indiana Pacers by 2.8 expected
Indiana Pacers by 43 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 42 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 41 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 40 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 39 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 38 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 37 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 36 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 35 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 34 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 33 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 32 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 31 points: <1%Indiana Pacers by 30 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 29 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 28 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 27 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 26 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 25 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 24 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 23 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 22 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 21 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 20 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 19 points: 1%Indiana Pacers by 18 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 17 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 16 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 15 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 14 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 13 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 12 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 11 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 10 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 9 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 8 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 7 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 6 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 5 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 4 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 3 points: 3%Indiana Pacers by 2 points: 2%Indiana Pacers by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%
← IND wins byDAL wins by →
Indiana Pacers wins by 5 or more48%
Indiana Pacers wins by 10 or more33%
Indiana Pacers wins by 15 or more21%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.5 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Indiana Pacers
GAaron Nesmithstarted
GBen Sheppardstarted
FPascal Siakamstarted
FIsaiah Jacksonstarted
FJarace Walkerstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GKlay Thompsonstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·DAL
Oct 26, 2025 at MIN
last game
Oct 27, 2025 vs OKC
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 29, 5:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers
INDAndrew Nembhard · left shoulder; strainOut
INDBennedict Mathurin · right great toe; sprainOut
INDJohnny Furphy · left foot; bone bruiseOut
INDKam Jones · lower back; stress reactionOut
INDObi Toppin · right foot; stress reactionOut
INDT.J. McConnell · left hamstring; strainOut
INDTyrese Haliburton · right achilles tendon; tornOut
INDTaelon Peter · right groin; strainDoubtful
Dallas Mavericks
DALDante Exum · tendinopathy right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainDoubtful
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; sprainDoubtful
DALBrandon Williams · personal reasonsQuestionable
DALAnthony Davis · bilateral achilles;Probable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
IND·DAL
+0.45
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
116.0
points / game
108.0
127.7
points allowed / game
118.0
0−3
season record
1−3
0−1
home record
1−3
0−2
away record
0−0
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
3−7
42.3
FG%
44.2
33.3
3P%
35.2
49.3
rebounds / game
42.5
23.3
assists / game
23.8
14.7
turnovers / game
16.5
46.7
points in paint / game
45.0

Rating Trend

IND · DAL · 2 days
Indiana PacersDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 2−6
Mar 19, 2025at INDIND 135 − 131
Nov 4, 2024at DALIND 134 − 127
Mar 5, 2024at DALIND 137 − 120
Feb 25, 2024at INDIND 133 − 111
Mar 27, 2023at INDDAL 127 − 104
Feb 28, 2023at DALIND 124 − 122
Jan 29, 2022at DALDAL 132 − 105
Dec 10, 2021at INDIND 106 − 93

IND · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Oct 26, 2025at MIN110 − 114L
Oct 25, 2025at MEM103 − 128L
Oct 23, 2025vs OKC135 − 141L
Jun 22, 2025at OKC91 − 103L
Jun 19, 2025vs OKC108 − 91W
Jun 16, 2025at OKC109 − 120L
Jun 13, 2025vs OKC104 − 111L
Jun 11, 2025vs OKC116 − 107W
Jun 8, 2025at OKC107 − 123L
Jun 5, 2025at OKC111 − 110W

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W
Apr 9, 2025vs LAL97 − 112L
Apr 5, 2025at LAC104 − 135L
Apr 4, 2025at LAC91 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025vs ATL120 − 118W