bayesRatings

Mavericks at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Nov 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final DAL 102 – HOU 110
← NBA / Nov 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL28272324102
HOU24342329110
Team box
DAL·HOU
40-89
field goals
41-89
9-36
3-pointers
8-29
13-20
free throws
20-30
40
rebounds
54
30
assists
23
15
turnovers
17
56
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
P.J. WashingtonDAL3629123
Amen ThompsonHOU392754
Alperen SengunHOU4026116
Kevin DurantHOU382165
Max ChristieDAL331746
Tari EasonHOU301542

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +9
DAL +9
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 9 · DAL 6lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 33%, HOU 67% · Updated Nov 3, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 7.1
Expected score
HOU 116.7 – 109.6 DAL
Expected total
226.3
MavericksThe matchupRockets
+204Our fair odds−204
109.6Expected points116.7
−0.10Power rating+0.39
108.2Points / game127.8
116.5Allowed / game114.2
44.3FG%50.6
33.03P%46.4
43.3Rebounds / game48.4
2−4Season record3−2
3−7Last 105−5
Anthony Davis · Dante Exum
Dereck Lively II · Kyrie IrvingOut (4 each)Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · JD Davison

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · HOU chance
Our model fair32.9%67.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Mavericks+20433%————
HOUHouston Rockets−20467%————
SpreadHOU by 7.1
DALDallas Mavericks+7.1our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−7.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.3
Over226.3our total————
Under226.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 7.1 expected
Dallas Mavericks by 49 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%
← DAL wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more59%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more44%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.3 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.569%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.530%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Dallas Mavericks
GKlay Thompsonstarted
GMax Christiestarted
FDaniel Gaffordstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FTari Easonstarted
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·HOU
Nov 1, 2025 at DET
last game
Nov 1, 2025 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 3, 5:00 PM ET
Dallas Mavericks
DALAnthony Davis · injury management left calf; strainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALDereck Lively II · right knee; sprainOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUJD Davison · personal reasonsOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
DAL·HOU
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.39
108.2
points / game
127.8
116.5
points allowed / game
114.2
2−4
season record
3−2
2−3
home record
1−1
0−1
away record
2−1
L1
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
5−5
44.3
FG%
50.6
33.0
3P%
46.4
43.3
rebounds / game
48.4
23.2
assists / game
26.4
16.7
turnovers / game
17.2
43.7
points in paint / game
49.6

Rating Trend

DAL · HOU · 7 days
Dallas MavericksHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 4−6
Mar 14, 2025at HOUHOU 133 − 96
Feb 8, 2025at DALDAL 116 − 105
Jan 1, 2025at HOUHOU 110 − 99
Oct 31, 2024at DALHOU 108 − 102
Apr 7, 2024at DALDAL 147 − 136
Mar 31, 2024at HOUDAL 125 − 107
Dec 22, 2023at HOUHOU 122 − 96
Nov 28, 2023at DALDAL 121 − 115
Jan 2, 2023at HOUDAL 111 − 106
Dec 29, 2022at DALDAL 129 − 114

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 1, 2025at DET110 − 122L
Oct 29, 2025vs IND107 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025vs OKC94 − 101L
Oct 26, 2025vs TOR139 − 129W
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W
Apr 9, 2025vs LAL97 − 112L
Apr 5, 2025at LAC104 − 135L

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L
Apr 26, 2025at GS93 − 104L