bayesRatings

Rockets at Raptors

NBA · Wednesday, Oct 29 · 5:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final HOU 139 – TOR 121
← NBA / Oct 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU39313633139
TOR30332830121
Team box
HOU·TOR
50-87
field goals
43-85
13-30
3-pointers
21-40
26-34
free throws
14-19
53
rebounds
22
31
assists
29
17
turnovers
10
66
points in paint
36
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR333152
Kevin DurantHOU373151
Brandon IngramTOR332924
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU382555
Alperen SengunHOU351889
Amen ThompsonHOU401897

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +21
HOU +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TOR 5 · HOU 21lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 67%, TOR 33% · Updated Oct 29, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 6.4
Expected score
HOU 116.2 – 109.8 TOR
Expected total
226.1
RocketsThe matchupRaptors
−199Our fair odds+199
116.2Expected points109.8
+0.39Power rating−0.54
124.0Points / game121.5
116.3Allowed / game125.0
47.0FG%50.5
41.03P%35.5
45.3Rebounds / game39.5
1−2Season record1−3
4−6Last 103−7
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleetOutA.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky Hepburn · Jakob Poeltl

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · TOR chance
Our model fair66.5%33.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−19967%————
TORToronto Raptors+19933%————
SpreadHOU by 6.4
HOUHouston Rockets−6.4our margin————
TORToronto Raptors+6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 226.1
Over226.1our total————
Under226.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 6.4 expected
Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%
← HOU wins byTOR wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more58%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more42%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

226.1 expected
177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 216.568%
Total over 226.549%
Total over 236.529%
Total from 217 to 23639%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
FCollin Murray-Boylesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·TOR
Oct 27, 2025 vs BKN
last game
Oct 27, 2025 at SA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 29, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORJakob Poeltl · low back; tightnessOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
HOU·TOR
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
−0.54
124.0
points / game
121.5
116.3
points allowed / game
125.0
1−2
season record
1−3
1−1
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
47.0
FG%
50.5
41.0
3P%
35.5
45.3
rebounds / game
39.5
23.7
assists / game
30.8
16.3
turnovers / game
16.5
49.3
points in paint / game
60.5

Rating Trend

HOU · TOR · 2 days
Houston RocketsToronto Raptors
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TOR 5−3
Feb 9, 2025at HOUHOU 94 − 87
Dec 22, 2024at TORHOU 114 − 110
Feb 9, 2024at TORTOR 107 − 104
Feb 2, 2024at HOUHOU 135 − 106
Feb 3, 2023at HOUTOR 117 − 111
Nov 9, 2022at TORTOR 116 − 109
Apr 8, 2022at TORTOR 117 − 115
Feb 10, 2022at HOUTOR 139 − 120

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L
Apr 26, 2025at GS93 − 104L
Apr 23, 2025vs GS109 − 94W
Apr 20, 2025vs GS85 − 95L

TOR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 27, 2025at SA103 − 121L
Oct 26, 2025at DAL129 − 139L
Oct 24, 2025vs MIL116 − 122L
Oct 22, 2025at ATL138 − 118W
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025vs CHA126 − 96W
Apr 6, 2025at BKN120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025vs DET105 − 117L
Apr 3, 2025vs POR103 − 112L