bayesRatings

Nets at Rockets

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Toyota Center (Houston) · Final BKN 109 – HOU 137
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN25351732109
HOU42293234137
Team box
BKN·HOU
41-86
field goals
49-85
15-40
3-pointers
16-32
12-18
free throws
23-26
37
rebounds
39
22
assists
33
14
turnovers
10
46
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Tari EasonHOU262255
Alperen SengunHOU302166
Terance MannBKN232160
Kevin DurantHOU251963
Michael Porter Jr.BKN281842
Day'Ron SharpeBKN2217122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +33
BKN +33
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 33 · BKN 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 20%, HOU 80% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 12.0
Expected score
HOU 113.8 – 101.8 BKN
Expected total
215.5
NetsThe matchupRockets
+411Our fair odds−411
101.8Expected points113.8
−0.76Power rating+0.44
116.0Points / game117.5
128.3Allowed / game120.0
44.7FG%41.5
36.33P%36.5
36.7Rebounds / game48.5
0−3Season record0−2
2−8Last 103−7
Danny Wolf · Drake Powell
Egor Demin · Haywood Highsmith
Ziaire WilliamsOutDorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · HOU chance
Our model fair19.6%80.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+41120%————
HOUHouston Rockets−41180%————
SpreadHOU by 12.0
BKNBrooklyn Nets+12our margin————
HOUHouston Rockets−12our margin————
Totalwe expect 215.5
Over215.5our total————
Under215.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 12.0 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 53 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 52 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 51 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 50 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 49 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 48 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 47 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 46 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 52 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 53 points: <1%
← BKN wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more71%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more57%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more41%
Within 5 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

215.5 expected
171 points: <1%172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: 1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 2%201 points: 2%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 1%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: <1%248 points: <1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 205.569%
Total over 215.549%
Total over 225.530%
Total from 206 to 22540%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GCam Thomasstarted
GBen Sarafstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
CNic Claxtonstarted
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·HOU
Oct 26, 2025 at SA
last game
Oct 24, 2025 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDanny Wolf · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNDrake Powell · g league - on assignmentOut
BKNEgor Demin · left plantar fascia;Out
BKNHaywood Highsmith · tear, injury management right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
BKNZiaire Williams · lower back/glute; contusionOut
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
BKN·HOU
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
+0.44
116.0
points / game
117.5
128.3
points allowed / game
120.0
0−3
season record
0−2
0−1
home record
0−1
0−2
away record
0−1
L3
streak
L2
2−8
last 10
3−7
44.7
FG%
41.5
36.3
3P%
36.5
36.7
rebounds / game
48.5
25.7
assists / game
19.0
16.3
turnovers / game
19.5
39.3
points in paint / game
41.0

Rating Trend

BKN · HOU · 7 days
Brooklyn NetsHouston Rockets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · HOU 2−6
Feb 4, 2025at BKNBKN 99 − 97
Feb 1, 2025at HOUBKN 110 − 98
Jan 27, 2024at BKNBKN 106 − 104
Jan 3, 2024at HOUHOU 112 − 101
Mar 29, 2023at BKNBKN 123 − 114
Mar 7, 2023at HOUBKN 118 − 96
Apr 5, 2022at BKNBKN 118 − 105
Dec 8, 2021at HOUHOU 114 − 104

BKN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Oct 26, 2025at SA107 − 118L
Oct 24, 2025vs CLE124 − 131L
Oct 22, 2025at CHA117 − 136L
Apr 13, 2025vs NY105 − 113L
Apr 11, 2025at MIN91 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs ATL109 − 133L
Apr 8, 2025vs NO119 − 114W
Apr 6, 2025vs TOR109 − 120L
Apr 3, 2025vs MIN90 − 105L
Mar 31, 2025at DAL113 − 109W

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L
Apr 26, 2025at GS93 − 104L
Apr 23, 2025vs GS109 − 94W
Apr 20, 2025vs GS85 − 95L
Apr 13, 2025vs DEN111 − 126L