bayesRatings

Rockets at Celtics

NBA · Saturday, Nov 1 · 7:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final HOU 128 – BOS 101
← NBA / Nov 1, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU37293131128
BOS24242429101
Team box
HOU·BOS
42-77
field goals
40-103
19-29
3-pointers
14-44
25-35
free throws
7-7
53
rebounds
36
30
assists
24
20
turnovers
10
34
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Kevin DurantHOU302641
Amen ThompsonHOU321798
Baylor ScheiermanBOS231751
Alperen SengunHOU3116109
Payton PritchardBOS261414
Jaylen BrownBOS221225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +36
HOU +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BOS 0 · HOU 36lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 33%, BOS 67% · Updated Nov 1, 2025

Expected margin
BOS by 8.4
Expected score
BOS 113.2 – 104.8 HOU
Expected total
218.1
RocketsThe matchupCeltics
+200Our fair odds−200
104.8Expected points113.2
+0.39Power rating+0.86
127.8Points / game113.3
117.5Allowed / game107.3
49.5FG%44.5
41.53P%32.5
47.2Rebounds / game44.8
2−2Season record3−3
5−5Last 105−5
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleetOutJayson Tatum

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · BOS chance
Our model fair33.4%66.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets+20033%————
BOSBoston Celtics−20067%————
SpreadBOS by 8.4
HOUHouston Rockets+8.4our margin————
BOSBoston Celtics−8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 218.1
Over218.1our total————
Under218.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Celtics by 8.4 expected
Houston Rockets by 51 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 50 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 49 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 48 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 47 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 46 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 1 point: 2%Boston Celtics by 2 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 3 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 4 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 5 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 6 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 7 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 8 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 9 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 10 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 11 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 12 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 13 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 14 points: 3%Boston Celtics by 15 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 16 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 17 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 18 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 19 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 20 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 21 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 22 points: 2%Boston Celtics by 23 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 24 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 25 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 26 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 27 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 28 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 29 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 30 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 31 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 32 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 33 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 34 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 35 points: 1%Boston Celtics by 36 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 37 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 38 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 39 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 40 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 41 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 42 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 43 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 44 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 45 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 46 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 47 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 48 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 49 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 50 points: <1%Boston Celtics by 51 points: <1%
← HOU wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Celtics wins by 5 or more62%
Boston Celtics wins by 10 or more47%
Boston Celtics wins by 15 or more33%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

218.1 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 208.569%
Total over 218.549%
Total over 228.529%
Total from 209 to 22839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Boston Celtics
GDerrick Whitestarted
GJaylen Brownstarted
GPayton Pritchardstarted
FJosh Minottstarted
CNeemias Quetastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·BOS
Oct 29, 2025 at TOR
last game
Oct 31, 2025 at PHI
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 1, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; ankle surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
Boston Celtics
BOSJayson Tatum · right achilles; repairOut
BOSDerrick White · bilateral neck; stiffnessProbable
BOSPayton Pritchard · left ankle; sprainProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
HOU·BOS
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.86
127.8
points / game
113.3
117.5
points allowed / game
107.3
2−2
season record
3−3
1−1
home record
1−1
1−1
away record
2−2
W2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
5−5
49.5
FG%
44.5
41.5
3P%
32.5
47.2
rebounds / game
44.8
25.5
assists / game
22.0
16.5
turnovers / game
11.5
53.5
points in paint / game
39.3

Rating Trend

HOU · BOS · 5 days
Houston RocketsBoston Celtics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · BOS 6−2
Jan 27, 2025at BOSHOU 114 − 112
Jan 3, 2025at HOUBOS 109 − 86
Jan 21, 2024at HOUBOS 116 − 107
Jan 13, 2024at BOSBOS 145 − 113
Mar 13, 2023at HOUHOU 111 − 109
Dec 27, 2022at BOSBOS 126 − 102
Nov 22, 2021at BOSBOS 108 − 90
Oct 24, 2021at HOUBOS 107 − 97

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L
Apr 26, 2025at GS93 − 104L
Apr 23, 2025vs GS109 − 94W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 31, 2025at PHI109 − 108W
Oct 29, 2025vs CLE125 − 105W
Oct 27, 2025at NO122 − 90W
Oct 26, 2025at DET113 − 119L
Oct 24, 2025at NY95 − 105L
Oct 22, 2025vs PHI116 − 117L
May 16, 2025at NY81 − 119L
May 14, 2025vs NY127 − 102W
May 12, 2025at NY113 − 121L
May 10, 2025at NY115 − 93W