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Pelicans at Thunder

NBA · Sunday, Nov 2 · 2:30 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final NO 106 – OKC 137
← NBA / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO22303024106
OKC39363329137
Team box
NO·OKC
35-80
field goals
47-84
16-40
3-pointers
20-48
20-32
free throws
23-26
38
rebounds
42
26
assists
33
17
turnovers
13
38
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC303027
Zion WilliamsonNO282096
Trey Murphy IIINO321952
Jeremiah FearsNO261644
Aaron WigginsOKC261511
Isaiah HartensteinOKC2614148

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +36
NO +36
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 36 · NO 3lead changes: 5

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 9%, OKC 91% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 20.7
Expected score
OKC 124.9 – 104.2 NO
Expected total
229.1
PelicansThe matchupThunder
+959Our fair odds−959
104.2Expected points124.9
−0.74Power rating+1.34
108.0Points / game119.7
123.6Allowed / game110.3
41.6FG%45.5
32.63P%29.5
41.2Rebounds / game49.0
0−5Season record6−0
0−10Last 109−1
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Trey AlexanderOutChet Holmgren · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Luguentz Dort
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · OKC chance
Our model fair9.4%90.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+9599%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−95991%————
SpreadOKC by 20.7
NONew Orleans Pelicans+20.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−20.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.1
Over229.1our total————
Under229.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 20.7 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 52 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 51 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 50 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%
← NO wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more91%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more82%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more69%
Within 5 points either way9%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.1 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.568%
Total over 229.548%
Total over 239.529%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FZion Williamsonstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
CYves Missistarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
FJaylin Williamsstarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·OKC
Oct 31, 2025 at LAC
last game
Oct 30, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 2, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; sprainOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCLuguentz Dort · n/a; illnessOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
NO·OKC
−0.74
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
108.0
points / game
119.7
123.6
points allowed / game
110.3
0−5
season record
6−0
0−2
home record
3−0
0−3
away record
3−0
L5
streak
W6
0−10
last 10
9−1
41.6
FG%
45.5
32.6
3P%
29.5
41.2
rebounds / game
49.0
21.2
assists / game
23.8
14.6
turnovers / game
12.2
50.4
points in paint / game
53.3

Rating Trend

NO · OKC · 6 days
New Orleans PelicansOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 10−0
Apr 13, 2025at NOOKC 115 − 100
Feb 10, 2025at OKCOKC 137 − 101
Dec 7, 2024at NOOKC 119 − 109
Nov 13, 2024at OKCOKC 106 − 88
Apr 29, 2024at NOOKC 97 − 89post
Apr 27, 2024at NOOKC 106 − 85post
Apr 24, 2024at OKCOKC 124 − 92post
Apr 21, 2024at OKCOKC 94 − 92post
Mar 26, 2024at NOOKC 119 − 112
Jan 26, 2024at NOOKC 107 − 83

NO · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L
Oct 29, 2025at DEN88 − 122L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS90 − 122L
Oct 24, 2025vs SA116 − 120L
Oct 22, 2025at MEM122 − 128L
Apr 13, 2025vs OKC100 − 115L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIA104 − 153L
Apr 10, 2025at MIL111 − 136L
Apr 8, 2025at BKN114 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs MIL107 − 111L

OKC · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Oct 30, 2025vs WSH127 − 108W
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W