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Wizards at Thunder

NBA · Thursday, Oct 30 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final WSH 108 – OKC 127
← NBA / Oct 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH20293524108
OKC28313335127
Team box
WSH·OKC
38-84
field goals
44-98
17-40
3-pointers
16-49
15-17
free throws
23-28
49
rebounds
47
25
assists
29
23
turnovers
6
36
points in paint
50
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC293137
Isaiah JoeOKC242061
Ajay MitchellOKC302012
CJ McCollumWSH241921
Isaiah HartensteinOKC261785
Bilal CoulibalyWSH241684

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +24
WSH +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 24 · WSH 5lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 6%, OKC 94% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 24.7
Expected score
OKC 127.9 – 103.2 WSH
Expected total
231.1
WizardsThe matchupThunder
+1636Our fair odds−1636
103.2Expected points127.9
−1.29Power rating+1.34
121.0Points / game118.2
129.5Allowed / game110.8
46.5FG%45.6
37.83P%28.8
48.5Rebounds / game49.4
1−3Season record5−0
2−8Last 108−2
—OutChet Holmgren · Jalen Williams
Kenrich Williams · Nikola Topic
Thomas Sorber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · OKC chance
Our model fair5.8%94.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Wizards+16366%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−163694%————
SpreadOKC by 24.7
WSHWashington Wizards+24.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−24.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 231.1
Over231.1our total————
Under231.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 24.7 expected
Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 15 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 14 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 13 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 12 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 11 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 10 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 9 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 8 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 7 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 6 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 5 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 4 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 3 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 2 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 1 point: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 5%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 5%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 5%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 4%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%
← WSH wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more97%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more92%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more82%
Within 5 points either way3%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

231.1 expected
181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 221.568%
Total over 231.548%
Total over 241.529%
Total from 222 to 24139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBilal Coulibalystarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·OKC
Oct 28, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Oct 28, 2025 vs SAC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 30, 5:00 PM ET
OKCChet Holmgren · n/a; low back sorenessOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
WSH·OKC
−1.29
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
121.0
points / game
118.2
129.5
points allowed / game
110.8
1−3
season record
5−0
0−2
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
3−0
L2
streak
W5
2−8
last 10
8−2
46.5
FG%
45.6
37.8
3P%
28.8
48.5
rebounds / game
49.4
27.0
assists / game
22.8
15.2
turnovers / game
13.4
46.0
points in paint / game
54.0

Rating Trend

WSH · OKC · 3 days
Washington WizardsOklahoma City Thunder
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · OKC 6−2
Jan 12, 2025at WSHOKC 136 − 95
Dec 23, 2024at OKCOKC 123 − 105
Feb 23, 2024at OKCOKC 147 − 106
Jan 8, 2024at WSHOKC 136 − 128
Jan 6, 2023at OKCOKC 127 − 110
Nov 16, 2022at WSHOKC 121 − 120
Jan 11, 2022at WSHWSH 122 − 118
Nov 26, 2021at OKCWSH 101 − 99

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Oct 28, 2025vs PHI134 − 139L
Oct 26, 2025vs CHA113 − 139L
Oct 24, 2025at DAL117 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025at MIL120 − 133L
Apr 13, 2025at MIA119 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at CHI89 − 119L
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI103 − 122L
Apr 8, 2025at IND98 − 104L
Apr 6, 2025at BOS90 − 124L
Apr 3, 2025vs ORL97 − 109L

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Oct 28, 2025vs SAC107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W
Jun 11, 2025at IND107 − 116L