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Kings at Thunder

NBA · Tuesday, Oct 28 · 7:00 PM CT · Paycom Center · Final SAC 101 – OKC 107
← NBA / Oct 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SAC29332118101
OKC24342227107
Team box
SAC·OKC
36-85
field goals
42-92
10-29
3-pointers
14-44
19-21
free throws
9-10
46
rebounds
44
21
assists
26
17
turnovers
15
34
points in paint
52
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC363194
Zach LaVineSAC352343
DeMar DeRozanSAC331913
Aaron WigginsOKC341866
Ajay MitchellOKC241801
Russell WestbrookSAC301694

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OKC +10
SAC +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: OKC 6 · SAC 10lead changes: 8

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SAC 18%, OKC 82% · Updated Oct 28, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 14.7
Expected score
OKC 122.5 – 107.9 SAC
Expected total
230.4
KingsThe matchupThunder
+468Our fair odds−468
107.9Expected points122.5
+0.00Power rating+1.34
113.7Points / game121.0
117.0Allowed / game113.2
47.7FG%45.5
41.33P%28.0
36.7Rebounds / game50.8
1−2Season record4−0
5−5Last 108−2
Daeqwon Plowden · Isaiah Stevens
Keegan Murray · Nique CliffordOutChet Holmgren · Isaiah Joe
Jalen Williams · Kenrich Williams
Nikola Topic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SAC chance · OKC chance
Our model fair17.6%82.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SACSacramento Kings+46818%————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−46882%————
SpreadOKC by 14.7
SACSacramento Kings+14.7our margin————
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−14.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 230.4
Over230.4our total————
Under230.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 14.7 expected
Sacramento Kings by 53 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 52 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 51 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 50 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 49 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 48 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 47 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 46 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 45 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 44 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 43 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 42 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 41 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 40 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 39 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 38 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 37 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 36 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 35 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 34 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 33 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 32 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 31 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 30 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 29 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 28 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 27 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 26 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 25 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 24 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 23 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 22 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 21 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 20 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 19 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 18 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 17 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 16 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 15 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 14 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 13 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 12 points: <1%Sacramento Kings by 11 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 10 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 9 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 8 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 7 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 6 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 5 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 4 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 3 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 2 points: 1%Sacramento Kings by 1 point: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 50 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 51 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 52 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 53 points: <1%
← SAC wins byOKC wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more77%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more64%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more49%
Within 5 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

230.4 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 220.569%
Total over 230.549%
Total over 240.530%
Total from 221 to 24039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Sacramento Kings
GRussell Westbrookstarted
GDeMar DeRozanstarted
GDennis Schroderstarted
GZach LaVinestarted
FDomantas Sabonisstarted
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GAaron Wigginsstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SAC·OKC
Oct 26, 2025 vs LAL
last game
Oct 27, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 28, 5:00 PM ET
Sacramento Kings
SACDaeqwon Plowden · g league - two-wayOut
SACIsaiah Stevens · g league - two-wayOut
SACKeegan Murray · left thumb; ucl injury recoveryOut
SACNique Clifford · right hamstring; strainOut
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCChet Holmgren · low back; sorenessOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
SAC·OKC
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
+1.34
113.7
points / game
121.0
117.0
points allowed / game
113.2
1−2
season record
4−0
1−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
3−0
L1
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
8−2
47.7
FG%
45.5
41.3
3P%
28.0
36.7
rebounds / game
50.8
24.7
assists / game
22.0
14.0
turnovers / game
13.0
45.3
points in paint / game
54.5

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OKC 5−5
Mar 25, 2025at SACOKC 121 − 105
Feb 1, 2025at OKCOKC 144 − 110
Nov 25, 2024at SACOKC 130 − 109
Apr 9, 2024at OKCOKC 112 − 105
Feb 11, 2024at OKCOKC 127 − 113
Dec 14, 2023at SACSAC 128 − 123
Nov 10, 2023at SACSAC 105 − 98
Feb 28, 2023at OKCSAC 123 − 117
Feb 26, 2023at OKCSAC 124 − 115
Jan 20, 2023at SACSAC 118 − 113

SAC · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025vs LAL120 − 127L
Oct 24, 2025vs UTAH105 − 104W
Oct 22, 2025at PHX116 − 120L
Apr 13, 2025vs PHX109 − 98W
Apr 11, 2025vs LAC100 − 101L
Apr 9, 2025vs DEN116 − 124L
Apr 7, 2025at DET127 − 117W
Apr 6, 2025at CLE120 − 113W
Apr 4, 2025at CHA125 − 102W
Apr 2, 2025at WSH111 − 116L

OKC · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Oct 27, 2025at DAL101 − 94W
Oct 25, 2025at ATL117 − 100W
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W
Jun 11, 2025at IND107 − 116L
Jun 8, 2025vs IND123 − 107W