bayesRatings

Pelicans at Spurs

NBA · Saturday, Nov 8 · 7:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final NO 119 – SA 126
← NBA / Nov 8, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO22362734119
SA28382634126
Team box
NO·SA
45-94
field goals
48-90
15-38
3-pointers
14-40
14-17
free throws
16-18
40
rebounds
43
27
assists
31
12
turnovers
12
54
points in paint
62
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Trey Murphy IIINO384193
De'Aaron FoxSA312433
Victor WembanyamaSA3218183
Jeremiah FearsNO311833
Stephon CastleSA3516413
Devin VassellSA331620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +19
NO +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 19 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 30%, SA 70% · Updated Nov 8, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 6.5
Expected score
SA 119.7 – 113.2 NO
Expected total
232.8
PelicansThe matchupSpurs
+228Our fair odds−228
113.2Expected points119.7
−0.81Power rating−0.20
107.9Points / game118.2
120.8Allowed / game109.6
42.9FG%49.5
35.03P%37.4
42.4Rebounds / game45.5
2−6Season record6−2
2−8Last 107−3
Dejounte Murray · Hunter Dickinson
Jordan Poole · Trey Alexander
Yves MissiOutDylan Harper · Harrison Ingram
Riley Minix

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · SA chance
Our model fair30.5%69.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Pelicans+22830%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−22870%————
SpreadSA by 6.5
NONew Orleans Pelicans+6.5our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−6.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.8
Over232.8our total————
Under232.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 6.5 expected
New Orleans Pelicans by 49 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Pelicans by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Pelicans by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 9 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 8 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 3 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Pelicans by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 49 points: <1%
← NO wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more58%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more42%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more28%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.8 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.550%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New Orleans Pelicans
GSaddiq Beystarted
GJeremiah Fearsstarted
FKevon Looneystarted
FHerbert Jonesstarted
FTrey Murphy IIIstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDe'Aaron Foxstarted
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·SA
Nov 5, 2025 at DAL
last game
Nov 7, 2025 vs HOU
2 days
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 8, 5:00 PM ET
New Orleans Pelicans
NODejounte Murray · right achilles; ruptureOut
NOHunter Dickinson · g league - two-wayOut
NOJordan Poole · left quad; strainOut
NOTrey Alexander · g league - two-wayOut
NOYves Missi · n/a; illnessOut
NOZion Williamson · left hamstring; strainOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayOut
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprain injury recoveryQuestionable
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgery injury recoveryQuestionable
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprainQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
NO·SA
−0.81
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
107.9
points / game
118.2
120.8
points allowed / game
109.6
2−6
season record
6−2
1−2
home record
4−0
1−4
away record
2−2
W2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
7−3
42.9
FG%
49.5
35.0
3P%
37.4
42.4
rebounds / game
45.5
22.1
assists / game
24.6
14.9
turnovers / game
16.9
48.5
points in paint / game
50.0

Rating Trend

NO · SA · 12 days
New Orleans PelicansSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 4−6
Oct 24, 2025at NOSA 120 − 116
Mar 15, 2025at SASA 119 − 115
Feb 25, 2025at NONO 109 − 103
Feb 23, 2025at NONO 114 − 96
Dec 8, 2024at SASA 121 − 116
Apr 5, 2024at NOSA 111 − 109
Feb 2, 2024at SANO 114 − 113
Dec 17, 2023at SANO 146 − 110
Dec 1, 2023at NONO 121 − 106
Mar 21, 2023at NONO 119 − 84

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Nov 5, 2025at DAL101 − 99W
Nov 4, 2025vs CHA116 − 112W
Nov 2, 2025at OKC106 − 137L
Oct 31, 2025at LAC124 − 126L
Oct 29, 2025at DEN88 − 122L
Oct 27, 2025vs BOS90 − 122L
Oct 24, 2025vs SA116 − 120L
Oct 22, 2025at MEM122 − 128L
Apr 13, 2025vs OKC100 − 115L
Apr 11, 2025vs MIA104 − 153L

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 7, 2025vs HOU121 − 110W
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L