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Heat at Spurs

NBA · Thursday, Oct 30 · 7:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final MIA 101 – SA 107
← NBA / Oct 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA31271429101
SA33262820107
Team box
MIA·SA
39-90
field goals
38-86
15-38
3-pointers
14-41
8-11
free throws
17-23
41
rebounds
48
29
assists
26
14
turnovers
11
42
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Bam AdebayoMIA3731103
Victor WembanyamaSA4027186
Andrew WigginsMIA352462
Stephon CastleSA352168
Simone FontecchioMIA281832
Devin VassellSA371791

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +15
MIA +15
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 15 · MIA 7lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 48%, SA 52% · Updated Oct 30, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 0.4
Expected score
SA 112.7 – 112.3 MIA
Expected total
225.0
HeatThe matchupSpurs
+108Our fair odds−108
112.3Expected points112.7
−0.04Power rating−0.20
131.5Points / game121.0
115.8Allowed / game104.5
50.5FG%52.8
40.03P%40.5
47.8Rebounds / game49.5
3−1Season record4−0
4−6Last 106−4
Kasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Tyler HerroOutDe'Aaron Fox · Jeremy Sochan
Kelly Olynyk · Lindy Waters III
Luke Kornet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · SA chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+10848%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−10852%————
SpreadSA by 0.4
MIAMiami Heat+0.4our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 225.0
Over225.0our total————
Under225.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 0.4 expected
Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 3%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 5 points: 3%Miami Heat by 4 points: 3%Miami Heat by 3 points: 3%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more42%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more28%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more17%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

225.0 expected
176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 215.568%
Total over 225.549%
Total over 235.529%
Total from 216 to 23539%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·SA
Oct 28, 2025 vs CHA
last game
Oct 27, 2025 vs TOR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 30, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainDoubtful
MIANikola Jovic · right hip; contusionProbable
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprainOut
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgeryOut
SALindy Waters III · bilateral eye; procedureOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 4+ games
MIA·SA
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
131.5
points / game
121.0
115.8
points allowed / game
104.5
3−1
season record
4−0
2−0
home record
2−0
1−1
away record
2−0
W3
streak
W4
4−6
last 10
6−4
50.5
FG%
52.8
40.0
3P%
40.5
47.8
rebounds / game
49.5
29.8
assists / game
24.5
16.5
turnovers / game
17.5
58.0
points in paint / game
55.0

Rating Trend

MIA · SA · 3 days
Miami HeatSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SA 1−7
Feb 1, 2025at SAMIA 105 − 103
Jan 19, 2025at MIAMIA 128 − 107
Feb 7, 2024at MIAMIA 116 − 104
Nov 12, 2023at SAMIA 118 − 113
Dec 17, 2022at SAMIA 111 − 101
Dec 10, 2022at MIASA 115 − 111
Feb 26, 2022at MIAMIA 133 − 129
Feb 3, 2022at SAMIA 112 − 95

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L
Apr 13, 2025vs WSH118 − 119L
Apr 11, 2025at NO153 − 104W

SA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025at LAC117 − 122L
Apr 6, 2025at POR109 − 120L
Apr 4, 2025vs CLE113 − 114L