bayesRatings

Rockets at Spurs

NBA · Friday, Nov 7 · 6:30 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final HOU 110 – SA 121
← NBA / Nov 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU25253228110
SA23283535121
Team box
HOU·SA
39-85
field goals
40-87
13-27
3-pointers
18-45
19-21
free throws
23-25
41
rebounds
40
25
assists
30
24
turnovers
21
44
points in paint
38
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Alperen SengunHOU362588
Harrison BarnesSA392452
Kevin DurantHOU372412
Victor WembanyamaSA372284
Julian ChampagnieSA312271
Reed SheppardHOU261606

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +12
HOU +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 12 · HOU 11lead changes: 12

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 61%, SA 39% · Updated Nov 7, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 4.0
Expected score
HOU 116.3 – 112.3 SA
Expected total
228.7
RocketsThe matchupSpurs
−159Our fair odds+159
116.3Expected points112.3
+0.51Power rating−0.20
124.7Points / game117.9
111.7Allowed / game109.6
49.6FG%50.0
43.33P%37.0
50.0Rebounds / game46.3
5−2Season record5−2
7−3Last 107−3
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon HarrisOutDe'Aaron Fox · Dylan Harper
Luke Kornet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · SA chance
Our model fair61.5%38.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−15961%————
SASan Antonio Spurs+15939%————
SpreadHOU by 4.0
HOUHouston Rockets−4our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs+4our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.7
Over228.7our total————
Under228.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 4.0 expected
Houston Rockets by 45 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 44 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%
← HOU wins bySA wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more51%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more36%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

228.7 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.550%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·SA
Nov 5, 2025 at MEM
last game
Nov 5, 2025 at LAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 7, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUSteven Adams · left hip flexor; tightnessQuestionable
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprain/return to playQuestionable
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgery/return to playQuestionable
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 7+ games
HOU·SA
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
−0.20
124.7
points / game
117.9
111.7
points allowed / game
109.6
5−2
season record
5−2
2−1
home record
3−0
3−1
away record
2−2
W5
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
7−3
49.6
FG%
50.0
43.3
3P%
37.0
50.0
rebounds / game
46.3
26.3
assists / game
23.9
16.6
turnovers / game
16.3
52.9
points in paint / game
51.7

Rating Trend

HOU · SA · 11 days
Houston RocketsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SA 2−8
Feb 26, 2025at HOUHOU 118 − 106
Nov 6, 2024at HOUHOU 127 − 100
Oct 28, 2024at SAHOU 106 − 101
Oct 26, 2024at SASA 109 − 106
Mar 12, 2024at SAHOU 103 − 101
Mar 5, 2024at HOUHOU 114 − 101
Dec 11, 2023at HOUHOU 93 − 82
Oct 27, 2023at SASA 126 − 122
Mar 5, 2023at HOUHOU 142 − 110
Mar 4, 2023at SAHOU 122 − 110

HOU · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Nov 5, 2025at MEM124 − 109W
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Nov 5, 2025at LAL116 − 118L
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W