bayesRatings

Spurs at Lakers

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final SA 116 – LAL 118
← NBA / Nov 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SA29303720116
LAL26342830118
Team box
SA·LAL
36-74
field goals
37-83
13-33
3-pointers
10-31
31-40
free throws
34-44
37
rebounds
38
22
assists
23
19
turnovers
14
38
points in paint
44
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL4235913
Deandre AytonLAL3322100
Victor WembanyamaSA331983
Marcus SmartLAL341755
Stephon CastleSA371658
Jeremy SochanSA231620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +12
SA +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 4 · SA 12lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SA 32%, LAL 68% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 5.9
Expected score
LAL 117.9 – 112.0 SA
Expected total
229.8
SpursThe matchupLakers
+210Our fair odds−210
112.0Expected points117.9
−0.20Power rating+0.33
118.2Points / game119.8
108.2Allowed / game116.6
50.2FG%53.1
36.73P%33.1
47.8Rebounds / game40.1
5−1Season record6−2
7−3Last 106−4
De'Aaron Fox · Dylan Harper
Luke KornetOutAdou Thiero · Austin Reaves
Gabe Vincent · LeBron James
Maxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SA chance · LAL chance
Our model fair32.3%67.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SASan Antonio Spurs+21032%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−21068%————
SpreadLAL by 5.9
SASan Antonio Spurs+5.9our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 229.8
Over229.8our total————
Under229.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 5.9 expected
San Antonio Spurs by 48 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 47 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 46 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%
← SA wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more56%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more41%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

229.8 expected
180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 219.569%
Total over 229.550%
Total over 239.530%
Total from 220 to 23939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SA·LAL
Nov 2, 2025 at PHX
last game
Nov 3, 2025 at POR
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SADylan Harper · left calf; strainOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprainOut
SAHarrison Ingram · g league - two-wayQuestionable
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprainQuestionable
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgeryQuestionable
SALindy Waters III · bilateral eye; procedureQuestionable
SARiley Minix · g league - two-wayQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALAustin Reaves · right groin; sorenessOut
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
LALMaxi Kleber · abdominal muscle; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
SA·LAL
−0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
118.2
points / game
119.8
108.2
points allowed / game
116.6
5−1
season record
6−2
3−0
home record
2−2
2−1
away record
4−0
L1
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
50.2
FG%
53.1
36.7
3P%
33.1
47.8
rebounds / game
40.1
24.2
assists / game
27.2
15.8
turnovers / game
17.1
54.0
points in paint / game
56.8

Rating Trend

SA · LAL · 9 days
San Antonio SpursLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 8−2
Mar 17, 2025at LALLAL 125 − 109
Jan 13, 2025at LALSA 126 − 102
Nov 27, 2024at SALAL 119 − 101
Nov 15, 2024at SALAL 120 − 115
Feb 23, 2024at LALLAL 123 − 118
Dec 15, 2023at SASA 129 − 115
Dec 13, 2023at SALAL 122 − 119
Jan 25, 2023at LALLAL 113 − 104
Nov 26, 2022at SALAL 143 − 138
Nov 25, 2022at SALAL 105 − 94

SA · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 2, 2025at PHX118 − 130L
Oct 30, 2025vs MIA107 − 101W
Oct 27, 2025vs TOR121 − 103W
Oct 26, 2025vs BKN118 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025at LAC117 − 122L

LAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Nov 3, 2025at POR123 − 115W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIA130 − 120W
Oct 31, 2025at MEM117 − 112W
Oct 29, 2025at MIN116 − 115W
Oct 27, 2025vs POR108 − 122L
Oct 26, 2025at SAC127 − 120W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIN128 − 110W
Oct 21, 2025vs GS109 − 119L
Apr 30, 2025vs MIN96 − 103L
Apr 27, 2025at MIN113 − 116L