bayesRatings

Trail Blazers at Lakers

NBA · Monday, Oct 27 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final POR 122 – LAL 108
← NBA / Oct 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
POR28293233122
LAL24272631108
Team box
POR·LAL
47-103
field goals
40-86
14-43
3-pointers
7-27
14-15
free throws
21-26
49
rebounds
42
24
assists
23
19
turnovers
25
62
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Austin ReavesLAL394145
Deni AvdijaPOR322544
Jrue HolidayPOR302456
Jerami GrantPOR282233
Donovan ClinganPOR2616142
Deandre AytonLAL361682

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +18
POR +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 5 · POR 18lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was POR 30%, LAL 70% · Updated Oct 27, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 6.7
Expected score
LAL 115.1 – 108.5 POR
Expected total
223.6
Trail BlazersThe matchupLakers
+229Our fair odds−229
108.5Expected points115.1
−0.34Power rating+0.26
120.0Points / game121.3
117.0Allowed / game116.3
43.7FG%54.3
35.03P%32.7
39.7Rebounds / game41.3
1−2Season record2−1
5−5Last 104−6
Damian Lillard · Robert Williams III
Scoot HendersonOutAdou Thiero · Gabe Vincent
Jaxson Hayes · LeBron James
Luka Doncic

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
POR chance · LAL chance
Our model fair30.4%69.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PORPortland Trail Blazers+22930%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−22970%————
SpreadLAL by 6.7
PORPortland Trail Blazers+6.7our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−6.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 223.6
Over223.6our total————
Under223.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 6.7 expected
Portland Trail Blazers by 49 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 48 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 47 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 46 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 49 points: <1%
← POR wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more58%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more43%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more29%
Within 5 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

223.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 213.569%
Total over 223.550%
Total over 233.530%
Total from 214 to 23339%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
FJarred Vanderbiltstarted
FJake LaRaviastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
POR·LAL
Oct 26, 2025 at LAC
last game
Oct 26, 2025 at SAC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 27, 5:00 PM ET
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury managementOut
PORRobert Williams III · g league - on assignmentOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut
PORMatisse Thybulle · right hip; sorenessQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALJaxson Hayes · left patellar; tendinopathyOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
LALLuka Doncic · left finger; sprain; lower left leg contusionOut
LALMarcus Smart · right quad; contusionOut
LALMaxi Kleber · abdominal muscle; strainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
POR·LAL
−0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
120.0
points / game
121.3
117.0
points allowed / game
116.3
1−2
season record
2−1
1−1
home record
1−1
0−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
43.7
FG%
54.3
35.0
3P%
32.7
39.7
rebounds / game
41.3
26.3
assists / game
25.0
17.0
turnovers / game
16.3
50.7
points in paint / game
56.7

Rating Trend

POR · LAL · 7 days
Portland Trail BlazersLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 8−2
Apr 13, 2025at PORPOR 109 − 81
Feb 20, 2025at PORLAL 110 − 102
Jan 2, 2025at LALLAL 114 − 106
Dec 8, 2024at LALLAL 107 − 98
Jan 21, 2024at LALLAL 134 − 110
Nov 17, 2023at PORLAL 107 − 95
Nov 12, 2023at LALLAL 116 − 110
Feb 13, 2023at PORPOR 127 − 115
Jan 22, 2023at PORLAL 121 − 112
Nov 30, 2022at LALLAL 128 − 109

POR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Oct 26, 2025at LAC107 − 114L
Oct 24, 2025vs GS139 − 119W
Oct 22, 2025vs MIN114 − 118L
Apr 13, 2025vs LAL109 − 81W
Apr 11, 2025vs GS86 − 103L
Apr 9, 2025at UTAH126 − 133L
Apr 6, 2025vs SA120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025at CHI113 − 118L
Apr 3, 2025at TOR112 − 103W
Apr 1, 2025at ATL127 − 113W

LAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 26, 2025at SAC127 − 120W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIN128 − 110W
Oct 21, 2025vs GS109 − 119L
Apr 30, 2025vs MIN96 − 103L
Apr 27, 2025at MIN113 − 116L
Apr 25, 2025at MIN104 − 116L
Apr 22, 2025vs MIN94 − 85W
Apr 19, 2025vs MIN95 − 117L
Apr 13, 2025at POR81 − 109L
Apr 11, 2025vs HOU140 − 109W