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Heat at Lakers

NBA · Sunday, Nov 2 · 8:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final MIA 120 – LAL 130
← NBA / Nov 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA36273522120
LAL43342528130
Team box
MIA·LAL
43-84
field goals
48-95
9-33
3-pointers
15-46
25-36
free throws
19-23
42
rebounds
41
29
assists
33
15
turnovers
12
66
points in paint
60
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA353184
Luka DoncicLAL38291110
Austin ReavesLAL3826411
Jake LaRaviaLAL352583
Bam AdebayoMIA361785
Pelle LarssonMIA261756

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +18
MIA +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 18 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 38%, LAL 62% · Updated Nov 2, 2025

Expected margin
LAL by 4.2
Expected score
LAL 112.6 – 108.4 MIA
Expected total
221.0
HeatThe matchupLakers
+163Our fair odds−163
108.4Expected points112.6
−0.04Power rating+0.22
125.4Points / game117.5
114.0Allowed / game116.3
49.0FG%52.5
39.83P%32.2
46.4Rebounds / game41.0
3−2Season record4−2
3−7Last 105−5
Kasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro · Vladislav GoldinOut (4 each)Adou Thiero · Gabe Vincent
LeBron James · Maxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · LAL chance
Our model fair38.0%62.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Heat+16338%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−16362%————
SpreadLAL by 4.2
MIAMiami Heat+4.2our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers−4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 221.0
Over221.0our total————
Under221.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Lakers by 4.2 expected
Miami Heat by 46 points: <1%Miami Heat by 45 points: <1%Miami Heat by 44 points: <1%Miami Heat by 43 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 24 points: <1%Miami Heat by 23 points: <1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 14 points: 1%Miami Heat by 13 points: 1%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 46 points: <1%
← MIA wins byLAL wins by →
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 5 or more52%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 10 or more36%
Los Angeles Lakers wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

221.0 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 211.568%
Total over 221.549%
Total over 231.529%
Total from 212 to 23139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Miami Heat
GDavion Mitchellstarted
GPelle Larssonstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GMarcus Smartstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CJaxson Hayesstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·LAL
Oct 30, 2025 at SA
last game
Oct 31, 2025 at MEM
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 2, 5:00 PM ET
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut
MIAVladislav Goldin · g league - two-wayOut
MIANorman Powell · right groin; strainQuestionable
Los Angeles Lakers
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALGabe Vincent · left ankle; sprainOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
LALMaxi Kleber · abdominal muscle; strainOut
LALDeandre Ayton · back; spasmsProbable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 5+ games
MIA·LAL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
125.4
points / game
117.5
114.0
points allowed / game
116.3
3−2
season record
4−2
2−0
home record
1−2
1−2
away record
3−0
L1
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
49.0
FG%
52.5
39.8
3P%
32.2
46.4
rebounds / game
41.0
29.6
assists / game
26.0
16.0
turnovers / game
18.0
54.8
points in paint / game
55.0

Rating Trend

MIA · LAL · 6 days
Miami HeatLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAL 3−5
Jan 15, 2025at LALLAL 117 − 108
Dec 4, 2024at MIAMIA 134 − 93
Jan 3, 2024at LALMIA 110 − 96
Nov 6, 2023at MIAMIA 108 − 107
Jan 4, 2023at LALLAL 112 − 109
Dec 28, 2022at MIAMIA 112 − 98
Jan 23, 2022at MIAMIA 113 − 107
Nov 10, 2021at LALLAL 120 − 117

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Oct 30, 2025at SA101 − 107L
Oct 28, 2025vs CHA144 − 117W
Oct 26, 2025vs NY115 − 107W
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L
Apr 13, 2025vs WSH118 − 119L

LAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 31, 2025at MEM117 − 112W
Oct 29, 2025at MIN116 − 115W
Oct 27, 2025vs POR108 − 122L
Oct 26, 2025at SAC127 − 120W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIN128 − 110W
Oct 21, 2025vs GS109 − 119L
Apr 30, 2025vs MIN96 − 103L
Apr 27, 2025at MIN113 − 116L
Apr 25, 2025at MIN104 − 116L
Apr 22, 2025vs MIN94 − 85W