bayesRatings

Rockets at Grizzlies

NBA · Wednesday, Nov 5 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final HOU 124 – MEM 109
← NBA / Nov 5, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU34263430124
MEM22292929109
Team box
HOU·MEM
48-101
field goals
34-89
13-30
3-pointers
13-39
15-18
free throws
28-35
54
rebounds
47
29
assists
25
13
turnovers
15
60
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Amen ThompsonHOU3928107
Alperen SengunHOU3520167
Cam SpencerMEM191922
Ja MorantMEM341758
Jabari Smith Jr.HOU361642
Tari EasonHOU321651

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +21
HOU +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 2 · HOU 21lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 57%, MEM 43% · Updated Nov 5, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 2.3
Expected score
HOU 117.4 – 115.1 MEM
Expected total
232.5
RocketsThe matchupGrizzlies
−131Our fair odds+131
117.4Expected points115.1
+0.51Power rating+0.00
124.8Points / game115.5
112.2Allowed / game120.4
49.8FG%44.5
43.33P%32.9
49.3Rebounds / game42.6
4−2Season record3−5
6−4Last 103−7
Dorian Finney-Smith · Fred VanVleet
Isaiah Crawford · Kevon HarrisOut (4 each)Brandon Clarke · Scotty Pippen Jr.
Ty Jerome · Zach Edey

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MEM chance
Our model fair56.7%43.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Rockets−13157%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+13143%————
SpreadHOU by 2.3
HOUHouston Rockets−2.3our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies+2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 232.5
Over232.5our total————
Under232.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Rockets by 2.3 expected
Houston Rockets by 43 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 42 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 41 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 40 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 39 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 38 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 37 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 36 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 35 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 34 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 33 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 32 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 31 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 30 points: <1%Houston Rockets by 29 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 28 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 27 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 26 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 25 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 24 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 23 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 22 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 21 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 20 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 19 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 18 points: 1%Houston Rockets by 17 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 16 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 15 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 14 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 13 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 12 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 11 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 10 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 9 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 8 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 7 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 6 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 5 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 4 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 3 points: 3%Houston Rockets by 2 points: 2%Houston Rockets by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%
← HOU wins byMEM wins by →
Houston Rockets wins by 5 or more46%
Houston Rockets wins by 10 or more32%
Houston Rockets wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

232.5 expected
182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 222.569%
Total over 232.549%
Total over 242.530%
Total from 223 to 24239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Houston Rockets
GJosh Okogiestarted
GAmen Thompsonstarted
FKevin Durantstarted
FJabari Smith Jr.started
CAlperen Sengunstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MEM
Nov 3, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Nov 3, 2025 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 5, 5:00 PM ET
Houston Rockets
HOUDorian Finney-Smith · left ankle; surgeryOut
HOUFred VanVleet · right knee; acl repairOut
HOUIsaiah Crawford · g league - two-wayOut
HOUKevon Harris · g league - two-wayOut
HOUJabari Smith Jr. · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
HOUSteven Adams · left hip flexor; tightnessQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · left ankle; surgery recoveryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
HOU·MEM
+0.51
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
124.8
points / game
115.5
112.2
points allowed / game
120.4
4−2
season record
3−5
2−1
home record
2−3
2−1
away record
1−2
W4
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
49.8
FG%
44.5
43.3
3P%
32.9
49.3
rebounds / game
42.6
25.8
assists / game
27.5
17.2
turnovers / game
14.6
51.7
points in paint / game
48.5

Rating Trend

HOU · MEM · 9 days
Houston RocketsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MEM 4−6
Jan 30, 2025at MEMMEM 120 − 119
Jan 13, 2025at HOUHOU 120 − 118
Jan 9, 2025at MEMHOU 119 − 115
Oct 25, 2024at HOUHOU 128 − 108
Feb 14, 2024at MEMMEM 121 − 113
Dec 15, 2023at MEMHOU 103 − 96
Dec 13, 2023at HOUHOU 117 − 104
Nov 22, 2023at HOUHOU 111 − 91
Mar 24, 2023at MEMMEM 151 − 114
Mar 22, 2023at MEMMEM 130 − 125

HOU · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Nov 3, 2025vs DAL110 − 102W
Nov 1, 2025at BOS128 − 101W
Oct 29, 2025at TOR139 − 121W
Oct 27, 2025vs BKN137 − 109W
Oct 24, 2025vs DET111 − 115L
Oct 21, 2025at OKC124 − 125L
May 4, 2025vs GS89 − 103L
May 2, 2025at GS115 − 107W
Apr 30, 2025vs GS131 − 116W
Apr 28, 2025at GS106 − 109L

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 3, 2025vs DET106 − 114L
Nov 2, 2025at TOR104 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAL112 − 117L
Oct 29, 2025at PHX114 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025at GS118 − 131L
Oct 25, 2025vs IND128 − 103W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIA114 − 146L
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L
Apr 24, 2025vs OKC108 − 114L