bayesRatings

Pistons at Grizzlies

NBA · Monday, Nov 3 · 7:00 PM CT · FedExForum · Final DET 114 – MEM 106
← NBA / Nov 3, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET32262531114
MEM25232632106
Team box
DET·MEM
42-83
field goals
35-87
10-31
3-pointers
14-41
20-29
free throws
22-25
43
rebounds
49
23
assists
25
14
turnovers
20
58
points in paint
30
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cade CunninghamDET393358
Isaiah StewartDET3426144
Jaren Jackson Jr.MEM312141
Ja MorantMEM3518510
Cedric CowardMEM311762
Jalen DurenDET341493

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MEM +21
DET +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MEM 0 · DET 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 42%, MEM 58% · Updated Nov 3, 2025

Expected margin
MEM by 2.4
Expected score
MEM 119.2 – 116.8 DET
Expected total
236.0
PistonsThe matchupGrizzlies
+138Our fair odds−138
116.8Expected points119.2
−0.01Power rating+0.09
116.2Points / game116.9
113.5Allowed / game121.3
44.8FG%45.1
34.53P%32.7
48.3Rebounds / game41.7
4−2Season record3−4
5−5Last 103−7
Jaden Ivey · Marcus SasserOutBrandon Clarke · GG Jackson
Javon Small · PJ Hall
Scotty Pippen Jr.

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · MEM chance
Our model fair42.0%58.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Pistons+13842%————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−13858%————
SpreadMEM by 2.4
DETDetroit Pistons+2.4our margin————
MEMMemphis Grizzlies−2.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 236.0
Over236.0our total————
Under236.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Memphis Grizzlies by 2.4 expected
Detroit Pistons by 44 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 43 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 42 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 41 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 40 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 39 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 38 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 37 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 36 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 35 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 34 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 33 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 32 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 31 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 30 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 29 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 28 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 27 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 26 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 25 points: <1%Detroit Pistons by 24 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 23 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 22 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 21 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 20 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 19 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 18 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 17 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 16 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 15 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 14 points: 1%Detroit Pistons by 13 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 12 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 11 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 10 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 9 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 8 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 7 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 6 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 5 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 4 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 3 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 2 points: 2%Detroit Pistons by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 1 point: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 2 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 3 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 4 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 5 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 6 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 7 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 8 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 9 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 10 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 11 points: 3%Memphis Grizzlies by 12 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 13 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 14 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 15 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 16 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 17 points: 2%Memphis Grizzlies by 18 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 19 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 20 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 21 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 22 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 23 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 24 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 25 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 26 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 27 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 28 points: 1%Memphis Grizzlies by 29 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 30 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 31 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 32 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 33 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 34 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 35 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 36 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 37 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 38 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 39 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 40 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 41 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 42 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 43 points: <1%Memphis Grizzlies by 44 points: <1%
← DET wins byMEM wins by →
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 5 or more47%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 10 or more32%
Memphis Grizzlies wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

236.0 expected
186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 226.567%
Total over 236.548%
Total over 246.529%
Total from 227 to 24638%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Detroit Pistons
GCade Cunninghamstarted
GAusar Thompsonstarted
FDuncan Robinsonstarted
CIsaiah Stewartstarted
CJalen Durenstarted
Memphis Grizzlies
GKentavious Caldwell-Popestarted
GJa Morantstarted
FJaren Jackson Jr.started
FJaylen Wellsstarted
CJock Landalestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·MEM
Nov 1, 2025 vs DAL
last game
Nov 2, 2025 at TOR
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Nov 3, 5:00 PM ET
Detroit Pistons
DETJaden Ivey · right knee; arthroscopyOut
DETMarcus Sasser · right hip; impingementOut
DETTobias Harris · right ankle; sprainQuestionable
Memphis Grizzlies
MEMBrandon Clarke · right knee; surgery recoveryOut
MEMGG Jackson · g league - on assignmentOut
MEMJavon Small · g league - two-wayOut
MEMPJ Hall · g league - two-wayOut
MEMScotty Pippen Jr. · left great toe; surgery recoveryOut
MEMTy Jerome · right calf; strainOut
MEMZach Edey · g league - on assignmentOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 6+ games
DET·MEM
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.09
116.2
points / game
116.9
113.5
points allowed / game
121.3
4−2
season record
3−4
3−1
home record
2−2
1−1
away record
1−2
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
44.8
FG%
45.1
34.5
3P%
32.7
48.3
rebounds / game
41.7
25.8
assists / game
27.9
15.3
turnovers / game
13.9
58.0
points in paint / game
51.1

Rating Trend

DET · MEM · 7 days
Detroit PistonsMemphis Grizzlies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · MEM 9−0
Apr 5, 2025at DETMEM 109 − 103
Nov 27, 2024at MEMMEM 131 − 111
Apr 5, 2024at MEMMEM 108 − 90
Apr 1, 2024at DETMEM 110 − 108
Dec 6, 2023at DETMEM 116 − 102
Dec 9, 2022at MEMMEM 114 − 103
Dec 4, 2022at DETMEM 122 − 112
Feb 10, 2022at DETMEM 132 − 107
Jan 6, 2022at MEMMEM 118 − 88

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Nov 1, 2025vs DAL122 − 110W
Oct 29, 2025vs ORL135 − 116W
Oct 27, 2025vs CLE95 − 116L
Oct 26, 2025vs BOS119 − 113W
Oct 24, 2025at HOU115 − 111W
Oct 22, 2025at CHI111 − 115L
May 1, 2025vs NY113 − 116L
Apr 29, 2025at NY106 − 103W
Apr 27, 2025vs NY93 − 94L
Apr 24, 2025vs NY116 − 118L

MEM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 2, 2025at TOR104 − 117L
Oct 31, 2025vs LAL112 − 117L
Oct 29, 2025at PHX114 − 113W
Oct 27, 2025at GS118 − 131L
Oct 25, 2025vs IND128 − 103W
Oct 24, 2025vs MIA114 − 146L
Oct 22, 2025vs NO128 − 122W
Apr 26, 2025vs OKC115 − 117L
Apr 24, 2025vs OKC108 − 114L
Apr 22, 2025at OKC99 − 118L